The post Aluminium: Deficit outlook supports rebound – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Aluminium has extended gains after hitting a four‑month low, as lower prices attracted Chinese buying. Despite recent pressure from faster‑than‑expected Middle Eastern supply recovery, the market is still seen in deficit this year, with Chinese spot inventories falling for a twelfth session and speculative net longs dropping to multi‑year lows. Prices recover as Chinese demand returns “In base metals, aluminium extended gains for a second session, rebounding from a four-month low as lower prices attracted buying interest in China. The metal had come under pressure last week as Middle Eastern supply recovered faster than expected following the ceasefire, but the market is still expected to remain in deficit this year.” “Supporting the constructive outlook, China’s aluminium spot inventories fell for a twelfth consecutive session to 1.09Mt, more than
The post Oil: Geopolitical risk lifts prices – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has jumped above $76/bbl as renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf and US strikes on Iran revive supply concerns. The United States (US) has revoked a temporary licence for Iranian oil sales, while tight US inventories and damage to Russian refineries are supporting product cracks and middle‑distillate markets. Brent rallies on renewed Gulf tensions “Oil prices spiked following Iranian attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including an LNG carrier and an oil tanker. ICE Brent settled a little more than 3% higher yesterday, and in early trading this morning it’s up another 2.8%, leaving it trading above $76/bbl. The curve structure also strengthened, with the front end returning to backwardation after recently flipping into contango amid the ramp-up of Persian Gulf supply.” “In addition to military strikes, the US revoked a tempora
The post Gold: Central bank demand underpins prices – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has edged lower after an early advance as traders await the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, but the metal trades in line with evolving US rate expectations and remains supported above $4,000/oz. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz security concerns and persistent official‑sector buying, led by China, underpin the outlook. Fed path and China buying in focus “Gold edged lower in Tuesday’s afternoon trading after an early advance as investors looked ahead to the release of the June Federal Open Market Committee minutes later this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The metal continues to trade largely in line with shifting US rate expectations. Last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations of additional tightening and helped gold stabilise back above the $4,000/oz level.” “Meanwhi
The post National Bank of Poland: Wait-and-see stance holds – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on 9 July and through year-end, with hikes ruled out and cuts seen as unlikely in the near term. They argue the easing cycle, interrupted by the Persian Gulf turmoil, will only resume once policymakers gain more confidence in the inflation outlook. NBP seen holding rates steady “With inflation back at the 2.5% target in June, we think the Polish central bank is likely to maintain its wait-and-see stance on 9 July. Rate hikes are off the table, while cuts remain unlikely in the near term. Rates should stay unchanged through year-end, although easing discussions may re-emerge later this year.” “At the beginning of June, rate forwards were pricing in more than three rate hikes, whereas by the start of this month some investors had already begun betting on rate
The post Aluminium: Short supply supports prices despite Gulf outages – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht says Aluminium’s recent correction has likely run its course, with prices rebounding as Chinese and LME inventories fall sharply and Gulf smelter outages persist. The Australian Ministry expects primary Aluminium to be significantly undersupplied this year and next, though longer term it sees strong non-Chinese capacity growth, especially in Indonesia, tempering the structural outlook. Tight market now, capacity boom later “Stocks could fall below 900 Tsd. tons this month. Aluminium stocks registered on the LME have also been falling significantly since the end of October and have dropped below 300 Tsd. tons for the first time since October 2022.” “Also, in its latest market outlook, the Australian Department of Resources and Energy considers price levels in the market to be well supported. Whilst China has partially offset production
The post Polish Zloty: Dovish NBP tone risks downside – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak argue that reduced prospects of further tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) should ease external pressure on the Zloty. However, they warn that market concerns over a potentially more dovish National Bank of Poland (NBP) are PLN-negative, and with Euro adoption distant, any softening in NBP rhetoric could pose greater downside risks compared with the Forint’s convergence support. PLN vulnerable to softer NBP tone “As the likelihood of further rate hikes from the European Central Bank has diminished and additional monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve this year appears increasingly doubtful, the external negative pressure on the zloty should diminish.” “Still, the FX market appears worried that the NBP may turn more dovish soon, which is PLN negative.” “By contrast, the National Bank of Hungary’s dovish r
Iran's potential instability could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, affecting regional alliances and economic markets by 2026.
The post Iran mourning event signals potential instability, regime change by 2026 appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The UAE's increased oil output and China's demand surge may reshape global oil dynamics, influencing future price trends and market strategies.
The post UAE crude output nears record high post-OPEC exit amid Chinese buying surge appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Chinese tech giant Alibaba has ordered staff to stop using Anthropic's Claude Code, after it was found to be flagging users connecting from China. But Anthropic is already trying its best to stop Chinese firms from using Claude at all, and accuses Alibaba of running large "distillation" campaigns against it, saying it deployed around 25,000 fake accounts to train its own models on Claude.
