Chinese Yuan: Reflation gap weighs against US Dollar – Commerzbank

The post Taiwan Dollar: CBC inflation risks support against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s report on Taiwan notes that stronger inflation, with core CPI at 2.5%, is likely to push the CBC towards a more hawkish stance, including a possible 12.5 bp hike in H2. Despite robust AI-driven exports and firm domestic demand, USD/TWD has risen to 32.19, though analysts expect a potential pullback once seasonal dividend outflows fade. Hawkish CBC and AI-led growth “Taiwan’s June inflation surprised on the upside, with headline CPI rising to 2.6% yoy from 2.2% in May. This was the fastest pace since January 2025 and well above the Central Bank of the Republic of China’s (CBC) informal 2% threshold. Higher fuel, gas and electricity costs were the main drivers, but services inflation remained firm at 2.9% vs 2.5% previously.” “While lower oil prices should help moderate headline inflation in the coming months, the pickup in core inflation will be a concer

The post Malaysian Ringgit: Range-bound outlook holds against US Dollar – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% and expects it to stay on hold through 2026, with domestic fundamentals described as broadly supportive. Recent Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) weakness has stayed below 4.15 against the US Dollar (USD), and Chan expects USD/MYR to trade broadly within a 4.00–4.20 range near term, while maintaining a neutral stance on Malaysian government securities. Ringgit seen holding broad range “In Malaysia, BNM kept the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75% and maintained a broadly neutral policy stance.” “We expect BNM to remain on hold through the rest of 2026, as current monetary settings continue to support growth while keeping inflation manageable.” “Domestic fundamentals remain broadly supportive, underpinned by a resilient labour market, healthy investment approvals, and contained infl

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The post Euro trades flat despite soft European inflation appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. EUR/USD trades in a muted fashion near the 1.1430 area on Friday, as a weaker US Dollar (USD) helps the pair hold onto modest Thursday gains. That was true even after inflation data from Germany and France showed limited price pressure. Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.3% MoM in June, while the annual rate remained unchanged at 2.3%. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined 0.2% MoM and rose 2.4% YoY. In France, the EU-harmonized CPI fell 0.3% on the month and increased 2.0% from a year earlier. The readings suggest that inflation in two of the Eurozone’s largest economies remains relatively contained. This could reduce the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain an aggressively restrictive policy stance, limiting the Euro’s upside. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty remains in focus. United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that I

The post Singapore Dollar: Range-bound trade outlook against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD remains range-bound, with intraday action expected between 1.2905 and 1.2940 as recent price moves provided no fresh directional clues. Over the next one to three weeks, the bank sees mild downward pressure as having eased, projecting a broader 1.2890–1.2990 range. On a one to three month horizon, a break above 1.3000 could target 1.3095. Dollar seen consolidating in ranges “24-HOUR VIEW: We noted “a slight increase in upward momentum,” but we pointed out that “it is insufficient to indicate a continued rise in USD.” We indicated that USD “is more likely to trade in a higher range of 1.2920/1.2960.” However, USD traded in a quiet manner between 1.2914 and 1.2938. The price action provides no fresh clues, and USD is likely to trade between 1.2905 and 1.2940 today.” “1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (09 Jul, spot at 1.2940) remains

The post AUD/USD climbs as Chinese Yuan strength supports the Aussie appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. AUD/USD advances toward the 0.6960 area on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and renewed strength in the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The pair continues to recover on the four-hour chart, although escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are limiting broader risk appetite. US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Iran had requested further negotiations and that Washington had agreed to continue talks. However, Trump warned that the ceasefire was “over,” raising concerns that hostilities could intensify despite diplomatic channels remaining open. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan strengthened to a one-week high against the US Dollar, offering additional support to the Australian Dollar given Australia’s close trade ties with China. The move followed a stronger fixing from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7989, below th

The post European Central Bank: One more hike base case as data soften – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June minutes justified the latest rate hike while keeping flexibility on future moves. Since then, Oil prices have fallen sharply and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside. Their base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, though President Lagarde’s comments in Sintra raise the risk that June was a one‑and‑done move. ECB weighs final hike versus pause “The ECB’s June meeting minutes reinforced the Governing Council’s view that the June rate hike was fully justified based on the information available at the time, while maintaining flexibility on future policy moves.” “Since the 11 June meeting, oil prices have fallen sharply and June CPI data surprised on the downside.” “Our base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, although E

The post Equities: AI Boom risks and resilience – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank economists Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner argue that the AI-driven investment surge in US high-tech and IT is substantial but not yet excessive compared with past booms. They see early signs of faster US productivity, elevated equity valuations and profit expectations, and warn of potential corrections, yet conclude the AI boom and associated stock market strength are likely to persist for now. AI boom, valuations and bubble risk “The introduction of artificial intelligence has triggered an investment boom, particularly in the United States. The sheer scale of the resources being deployed increases the risk of a bubble. This could trigger a setback in the stock markets. We have assessed the risks and concluded that the boom is likely to continue for the time being.” “Furthermore, while stocks are expensive, they are valued lower than they were at the peak of the dot-c