CLARITY Act Momentum Slows As Approval Odds Fall To 60%
A July 4 target date for advancing crypto market-structure legislation through the Senate is now looking less certain, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research. Senate Calendar Creates A Bottleneck Alex Thorn revised his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% down to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that has grown increasingly crowded with competing priorities. Related Reading: XRP Monthly RSI Drops To All-Time Low As Market Watches For Confirmation Next week’s agenda is expected to be taken up largely by FISA-related business following a failed reauthorization vote, leaving little room for crypto legislation to advance. Thorn said the obstacle is no longer political will — support for the bill has not collapsed. The problem is time. i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened.