EUR/USD Forecast: Holds near weekly top as bulls battle 23.6% Fibo.

The post Euro: Yield spreads hint at recovery against US Dollar – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that European Central Bank (ECB) minutes added little new information but confirmed openness to another rate hike, consistent with MUFG’s call for a 25bp move in September. Despite the Euro being July’s weakest G10 currency, a turning 2-year yield spread and potential US yield declines could support renewed EUR/USD upside in coming weeks. ECB stance and yields guide Euro outlook “The ECB will be certainly less concerned over longer-term inflation expectations becoming un-anchored with the 5y5y inflation swap rate having declined since the initial ceasefire was agreed.” “If crude oil and/or natural gas prices were to rebound sharply then risks will rise of course but at this point longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.” “In that context we see continued risks of the ECB acting again consistent with our current forecast of another

The post Euro: Narrow path for sustained strength against US Dollar – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that Middle East tensions have modestly re-tightened EUR/USD short-term swap rate differentials by around 10bp, though the spread remains wider than pre-war levels. While this supports expectations for a potential September European Central Bank (ECB) hike, Pesole argues the path for a stronger EUR/USD is limited and warns of downside risks, including a possible retest of 1.140. Rate spreads support but risks linger “We expect stabilisation today – with markets potentially wanting to wait for weekend clarity – but risks are of a retest of 1.140.” “While all this is injecting new confidence into previously dwindling expectations for a September ECB hike, the path for EUR/USD to come out stronger from this re-escalation is quite narrow.” “The Middle East military re-escalation has prompted a moderate re-tightening in EUR/USD short-term swap rate dif

The post Euro: Range trade bias intact against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights a modest uptick in EUR/USD momentum, with scope to retest 1.1450 but limited prospects for a sustained break higher. Intraday support is seen at 1.1420 and 1.1405. For the coming one to three weeks, the pair is viewed in a 1.1360–1.1450 range, while a break of 1.1390/1.1410 could expose 1.1210 longer term. Euro capped near recent highs “24-HOUR VIEW: EUR declined to 1.1390 two days ago before recovering to close largely unchanged at 1.1414 (+0.03%). Yesterday, we noted that “momentum indicators are turning flat,” and we held the view that EUR “is likely to range-trade between 1.1395 and 1.1440.” EUR subsequently traded within a higher range of 1.1412/1.1449, closing at 1.1428 (+0.12%). The slight increase in upward momentum suggests EUR may retest 1.1450. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1405 would mean tha

The post Australian Dollar holds mid-0.6900s as weak USD meets Iran risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The AUD/USD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day and climbs to a two-and-a-half-week top, around the 0.6970 area, during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around mid-0.6900s, still up 0.10% for the day. Against the backdrop of Wednesday’s less hawkish FOMC Minutes, hopes for diplomacy to ease tensions in the Middle East drag the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to an over one-week low and act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. US President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran had called to make a deal with the US. Furthermore, a White House official signaled that the US is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran as technical talks over Tehran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz continue. However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid renewed fig

The post WTI Forecast: Retakes $72, bulls eye 23.6% Fibo and 200-day EMA appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day’s retracement slide from the vicinity of a three-week high. The black liquid reclaims the $72.00 mark during the Asian session and remains on track to register weekly gains for the first time in the previous five. From a technical perspective, the recent recovery move from the lowest level since February, touched last week, faltered near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall earlier this week. Moreover, Crude Oil prices remain below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping a bearish near-term tone amid mixed momentum indicators. In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive and advances above its signal line, hinting at an ongoing corrective bounce. However, the Relativ

The post Euro nudges higher above 1.1400 as traders ramp up their bets on ECB hikes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1430 during the early Asian session on Friday, bolstered by a softer US Dollar (USD). The European Central Bank (ECB) is grappling with elevated core inflation, forcing traders to price in more aggressive tightening despite mixed guidance from ECB officials.  Accounts of the meeting showed on Thursday that the ECB policymakers gathering last month were presented with projections showing inflation staying above target into next year despite nearly three ECB interest rate hikes. The ECB raised rates at the June policy meeting, and traders expect it to do so twice more over the next year to contain the fallout from the Iran war on energy prices. Traders raise their bets on ECB rate hikes again in recent days on signs that an agreement between the US and Iran to end the war is in jeopardy. This, in turn, provide some support t

The post Forex Today: Geopolitics and Canadian jobs steal the show appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The US Dollar (USD) navigated a narrow range on Thursday, building on the previous day’s losses and briefly reaching multi-day lows. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions continued to make the rounds, while investors seemed to have largely ignored the cautious tone in the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 10: The US Dollar Index (DXY) had kept the bearish tone for the second straight day on Thursday, although it managed to bounce off earlier lows and dispute the 101.00 region afterward. Next on tap on the USD docket will be the release of the always-relevant inflation figures tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 14. EUR/USD has clinched its second consecutive daily advance on Thursday, although gains appear to have met a tough nut to crack around 1.1450. Final inflation data in Germany are due alongside the speech by the ECB’s Vujc

The post Euro holds firm as traders assess geopolitical risks, interest rate outlook appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. EUR/USD holds modest gains on Thursday, supported by some softness in the US Dollar (USD) as markets assess renewed hostilities in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1444, up 0.25% on the day. The latest escalation between the United States (US) and Iran has failed to provide a strong boost to the US Dollar. At the same time, downside in the Greenback has remained limited, reflecting market uncertainty over whether the interim peace agreement between Washington and Tehran will hold or collapse. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.90 after touching an intraday low of 100.79. Meanwhile, energy-driven inflation risks are back at the forefront as Oil prices rebound on growing security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles about