The post Euro: Political risks but downside bias – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Francesco Pesole at ING discusses Euro resilience despite French political developments, including Marine Le Pen’s 2027 bid and expectations of an RN win. He sees limited immediate impact on the Euro, keeps no political premium in EUR forecasts, and highlights a downside bias for EUR/USD, with Swedish inflation and EUR/SEK dynamics also in focus. France politics and Nordic spillovers “Marine Le Pen announced she will run in the 2027 presidential election after a court decision yesterday. We discuss the outlook for French politics, rates and FX in this note. This court decision doesn’t change much for the euro considering markets are likely to be already pricing in an RN win in April.” “Surely, there are risks that during the campaign OATs will experience pockets of stress around fiscal concerns, spilling over into the euro. But our baseline assumption is that RN will be careful not to unnerve th
The post Euro: Geopolitics and ECB repricing supports EUR – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) is consolidating around the low 1.14s, with mixed G10 performance as markets reassess Oil’s impact on Euro area terms of trade and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate path. They highlight a notable repricing of ECB tightening to about 35 bps by December, supporting EUR via yield spreads, while near-term EUR/USD is seen confined between 1.1380 and 1.1480. Oil risk and ECB repricing “The EUR is quietly consolidating in the low-1.14s and entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD. The EUR is also a mid-performer among the G10, in mixed overall trade with dispersion offering a break from the broad USD-driven movement that has characterized overall performance through much of this year.” “The latest resurgence in geopolitical risk presents a clear potential headwind for the EUR as we assess the ren
Le Pen's candidacy could reshape France's political landscape, influencing market dynamics and prompting strategic shifts among rivals.
The post Marine Le Pen announces 2027 French presidential bid, markets react appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Le Pen's candidacy could reshape France's political landscape, challenging current leadership dynamics and influencing future electoral strategies.
The post Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential bid after court ruling appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Le Pen's candidacy could significantly alter France's political dynamics, impacting party strategies, voter sentiment, and future alliances.
The post Marine Le Pen announces 2027 French presidential bid after court ruling appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post Polish Zloty: Dovish NBP stance weighs on PLN – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% through year-end, with easing delayed until policymakers gain confidence on inflation. He highlights a narrowing rate differential, stronger Dollar and recent EUR/PLN gains toward 4.29–4.30, arguing that potential rate-cut signals could create further upside for EUR/PLN as the debate intensifies after summer. Rate cut debate and zloty pressure “The National Bank of Poland will likely leave rates unchanged at 3.75% today, which is our baseline until the end of the year. More interesting today will be the new NBP forecast and statement and tomorrow’s press conference. The easing cycle in Poland was interrupted by turmoil in the Persian Gulf, but policymakers will require greater confidence in a favourable inflation outlook before resuming monetary easing.” “So far, the decline in inflation has largely b
The post EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro holds below 0.8450 with indicators showing some bullish divergence appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, with bears contained above 0.8535 yet failing to find acceptance above 0.8650 so far. Price action shows a clear bearish trend, although the bullish divergence evident in the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that sellers might be exhausted. In the fundamental domain, geopolitical tensions are back in the spotlight as US President Donald Trump called the US-Iran ceasefire to an end. Oil prices have bounced up from recent lows, and risk appetite has vanished, which is weighing on any significant Euro recovery. European Central Bank (ECB) board member José Luis Escrivá affirmed on Wednesday that the bank should keep all options open but that monetary policy would normally “look through one-off energy price shocks.” The Euro barely moved following Escrivá’s
Le Pen's candidacy could reshape France's political landscape, with Bardella's role potentially consolidating far-right influence in future elections.
The post Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential bid, names Bardella as running mate appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro hesitates above 1.1400 as geopolitical risks mount appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Euro (EUR) shows marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday and has returned to levels just above 1.1400 during the European trading session after rejection at 1.1430. A new round of hostilities in Iran and investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting are keeping Euro bulls in check. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Wednesday that the ceasefire is over and that, in his view, the memorandum of understanding is no longer in effect. These comments follow a fresh bout of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran, and the revocation of the US authorisation to sell Iranian Oil. The market reaction has been tame so far, as investors continue to view these events as manoeuvres to gain leverage in the negotiation process. Beyond that, investors remain wary of placing large directio
