European Central Bank warns firms and workers will react faster to price rises this time

The post Confirmed: ECB Accounts reveal growing concerns over inflation risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The European Central Bank (ECB) released the accounts of its latest monetary policy meeting on Thursday, revealing growing concern among policymakers over persistent inflationary risks. The discussions show a consensus within the Governing Council that the risks surrounding the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside relative to the ECB staff’s baseline projections. The accounts indicate that headline inflation is expected to rise further over the summer and remain well above the 2% target through the first half of 2027. This outlook comes despite the projections already embedding almost three 25-basis-point interest rate hikes. Policymakers also noted that the outlook could prove even more challenging if energy prices do not decline in line with futures market expectations. Under that scenario, above-target inflation would likely become considerably more persistent. Th

The Fed's inflation measure shift could ease rate hikes, boosting risk assets like crypto, but persistent inflation may still pose challenges. The post Federal Reserve’s inflation gauge revamp may curb interest rate hikes appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Euro: Energy repricing shapes outlook against US Dollar – ABN AMRO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD. Earlier in the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices hurt the Euro (EUR), but later the pair became more driven by Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. She now sees EUR/USD guided by central bank expectations, yield spreads and Eurozone energy risks. Euro sensitivity returns to energy moves “At the start of the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices weighed on the euro against the US dollar. During the conflict, however, EUR/USD became less sensitive to energy prices and more sensitive to expectations for the Fed and the ECB.” “When a Memorandum of Understanding was announced, energy prices fell sharply, but the euro gained little against the US dollar because markets were focused on expectation

The post Euro: Geopolitics and ECB repricing supports EUR – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) is consolidating around the low 1.14s, with mixed G10 performance as markets reassess Oil’s impact on Euro area terms of trade and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate path. They highlight a notable repricing of ECB tightening to about 35 bps by December, supporting EUR via yield spreads, while near-term EUR/USD is seen confined between 1.1380 and 1.1480. Oil risk and ECB repricing “The EUR is quietly consolidating in the low-1.14s and entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD. The EUR is also a mid-performer among the G10, in mixed overall trade with dispersion offering a break from the broad USD-driven movement that has characterized overall performance through much of this year.” “The latest resurgence in geopolitical risk presents a clear potential headwind for the EUR as we assess the ren

The post ECB’s Escrivá: Central bank to keep all options on a meeting-by-meeting basis appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Spain, José Luis Escrivá, said on Wednesday that the central bank “will keep all options on the table and decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” Additional quotes If the recent decline in oil prices were to persist, the factors that had concerned policymakers would gradually ease. The rise in oil prices over recent months had started to be transmitted to other prices in the economy. Monetary policy would normally look through one-off energy price shocks, but we started to see indirect effects over recent months with rising services inflation, transport costs and food prices. We had to react by raising interest rates. The ECB should remain agile given the uncertainty. Market reaction As of writing, EUR/USD is defending 1.1400 following these comments, modestly flat on the day. Escrivá flags energy-

The post US Dollar: Exposure stays elevated – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that cross-border investors’ Dollar holdings remain close to multi-year highs, driven by strong United States (US) asset exposure with fewer FX hedges. Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and the Dollar’s yield advantage underpin this stance, while limited tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and policy easing in China reduce alternatives. Yu warns that unhedged flows still pose currency risk if US assets underperform. Cross-border holdings and Fed expectations “Fed expectations have not moved materially over the past week, but cross-border investors’ aggregate dollar holdings remain at their highest level since April 2025. That comparison needs caveating: the April episode was distorted by the extreme moves around the Liberation Day tariffs. Today’s dollar exposure is different.” “By late Q2, however, Fed expectations had become the dominant driver, with the dollar’s yie

The post Euro watches its best arguments sink in the Strait of Hormuz appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro spent Tuesday assembling the sort of case that should buy a currency a bid: hawkish-leaning remarks from an unlikely corner of the European Central Bank (ECB), a softening American payrolls proxy, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) regional president content to say nothing new. The market read the file, shrugged, and sold the single currency anyway, fading it from an early peak just shy of 1.1450 to a 1.1406 close, its weakest finish since last Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz then finished the job, with late-session headlines confirming fresh Iranian strikes on commercial shipping and an American military and sanctions response that handed the Dollar a haven bid into the close. What began as quiet positioning ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes ended with the pair pinned near its low and Brent Crude Oil sharply higher. A hawkish dove, a soft payroll

The post China: Deflation channel for Euro area prices – BNP Paribas appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNP Paribas highlights how cheaper imports from China are exerting a deflationary influence on Euro area prices. With 16.9% of Euro area imports sourced from China, they estimate that a 10% fall in Chinese import prices could trim headline inflation by about 0.3 percentage points, consistent with recent European Central Bank (ECB) research, as China pursues a market-share-focused pricing strategy. Cheaper Chinese goods lower Euro inflation “Conversely, the downward trend in import prices from China has accelerated in recent months, especially in sectors where Chinese overcapacity is most pronounced, such as chemicals.” “Europe continues to import deflation from China.” “The deflationary impact of cheaper Chinese imports is not neutral for euro area inflation dynamics because the monetary union remains heavily dependent on imports (16.9% of euro area imports came from China in April