Prediction Markets Face a Full-Court Press
Kalshi and Polymarket may have a wild road ahead as states wage war on sports markets and the public reckons with insider bets.
Crypto Daily·
The dispute around Polymarket’s “US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026” market has raised a question that goes beyond one contract: what should count as authoritative evidence in a decentralized market?
Read full articleKalshi and Polymarket may have a wild road ahead as states wage war on sports markets and the public reckons with insider bets.
UN Women report says AI, anonymity and lack of effective laws are increasing the risks of engaging in digital spaces Women in public life are facing growing and increasingly sophisticated forms of online violence, the UN has said, warning that “AI-assisted ‘virtual rape’ is now at the fingertips of perpetrators”. Female rights campaigners, journalists and other public communicators face a deepening threat due to a combination of artificial intelligence, anonymity and the absence of effective laws and accountability, a report by UN Women found. Continue reading...
The prediction market will deploy a custom on-chain detection model to flag insider activity.
A study of 1.29M wallets shows users returning more often and trading across more categories, with sports leading at $10.1B and crypto serving as the main onboarding gateway.
The move would let Polymarket's primary, on-chain prediction market platform operate in the United States, rather than through its current intermediated setup with Polymarket US.
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 3,273 Bitcoin in a new purchase valued at approximately $255 million, while prediction market Polymarket sets 10% odds on the company selling any Bitcoin before year-end.
A new study of frontier models on Kalshi and Polymarket finds consistent losses, even as early signs suggest more autonomous systems could eventually outperform human bettors.
Experts point to Chinese backing for multinational attempts to introduce global governance of AI China is now the “good guy” on AI rather than Donald Trump’s US where the technology is being pursued in a dangerous “wild west” manner, a former UN and UK government adviser has told MPs. Prof Dame Wendy Hall, who was a member of the UN’s AI advisory board and co-wrote a review of AI for Theresa May’s government, told the House of Commons business and trade committee that China was backing multinational attempts to introduce global governance of AI in contrast to America, which had set up a race between profit-hungry companies that relied on hype. Continue reading...