Is the Market Underpricing Inflation? Vanguard Thinks So

The post Federal Reserve: Monetary policy report cites “high inflation” due to tariffs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Federal Reserve (Fed) released its monetary policy report on Friday , in which the US central bank acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and that the labor market is broadly stable, a signal that the price stability goal hasn’t been achieved. The report noted that inflation rose further in the spring, indicating that economic activity is expanding solidly despite uncertainty sparked by the war in Iran. M2 money supply growth rates “were moderate and broadly similar to the pace typically observed during the 2010s.” Credit conditions for small businesses and households remained tight, according to the Fed, and Q1 2026 growth was boosted by investment in high tech and government spending. The Fed said that the housing market is stagnant, that the financial system remained sound and resilient, and that asset valuations in stocks, corporate debt, residential

The post Bitcoin Holds Near $64K as Vanguard Bets Inflation Is Underpriced appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto News Vanguard Asset Management has opened a long position in short-dated US inflation-protected Treasuries, betting that markets are underpricing the risk that price pressures stay elevated. The move by the firm’s active-funds team follows a sharp widening in the crack spread — the gap between refined-fuel prices and the crude oil used to produce them — to its highest reading since 2022. For a bond desk, that signal rarely registers. Our reading is that it matters far beyond fixed income: sticky inflation reshapes rate-cut expectations, and every rate-sensitive risk asset, Bitcoin (BTC) included, trades off that path. The hedge is a direct wager that disinflation is not yet finished. The crack spread is a staple gauge for oil traders but an obscure one for macro investors, which is precisely why this move stands out. It has widened to levels last seen in 2022, even as

The post Mexico: Softer CPI backs dovish Banxico case – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale analysts Dev Ashish and Brendan McKenna note that Mexico’s June inflation data surprised to the downside, with headline and core measures moving close to Banxico’s target range. They argue that weak economic activity is weighing on services and core goods prices, reinforcing disinflation. The softer inflation profile strengthens the case for a more dovish Banxico stance, though the policy rate is still expected to stay at 6.50% near term. Disinflation bolsters easing expectations “June inflation surprised decisively to the downside, with headline CPI falling to 3.37% yoy and core inflation to 4.03% yoy. More importantly, the second bi-weekly reading showed headline at 3.18% yoy and core at 3.94% yoy, bringing both measures close to or within Banxico’s target range and providing the strongest evidence yet that underlying inflation pressures are easing.” “Service

Heightened US-Iran tensions could destabilize global markets, impacting oil prices and increasing regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrencies. The post Israel shares intelligence with US on Iranian plot against Trump, raising geopolitical risk for markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post United States: New methodology trims Core PCE inflation – Wells Fargo appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Wells Fargo economists Tom Porcelli and Sarah House discuss upcoming BEA changes to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index that will affect data from 2021 onward. They estimate the new methodology will lower current core PCE by about 0.2 percentage points, bringing May’s rate near 3.2% versus 3.4% published, but still roughly 1 percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target. Method tweaks modestly lower core PCE “We want to flag a few methodology changes that are being made to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index. The changes will be rolled out in the BEA’s annual update on September 30 and will impact data from 2021 onward.” “We expect the changes will shave only about 0.2 percentage points off the current y/y run-rate of core PCE. So the impact on actual inflation looks to be modest, but the changes are welcome jus

Brazil's unexpected inflation slowdown may prompt further rate cuts, impacting fiscal policy and crypto investments amid economic uncertainty. The post Brazil’s annual inflation unexpectedly slows in June as central bank delivers third consecutive rate cut appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post US Dollar: Geopolitics faded as markets eye rates – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the US Dollar (USD) has been broadly unchanged despite renewed Middle East tensions, as Oil has retraced and risk sentiment improved. He highlights that fading geopolitical risk keeps focus on front-end rate differentials, which have moved against the Dollar in some cases. ING sees upside risks for the Dollar but expects only limited DXY reaction if Oil stays contained. Dollar sidelined by rate focus “Markets are taking a decisively optimistic stance on fresh US-Iran tensions. Multiple reports indicate traffic in Hormuz has dropped to almost zero in the past couple of days, and we have seen effectively no intent of de-escalation from either party.” “The 2-year USD swap rate has erased roughly half of the 10bp jump after the re-escalation – 35bp of tightening is currently priced in for December.” “The dollar is seeing no benefits from this situation. Fading

Persistent inflation pressures may force the Fed to prioritize rate hikes over labor market concerns, impacting risk assets and economic growth. The post Fed officials weigh rate hikes as inflation runs hot at 4.1% appeared first on Crypto Briefing.