Massie vs. Gallrein: Prediction Markets Bet $5.5M on the Most Expensive US House Primary Ever

The post Oil spike hits Bitcoin near $62K as Polymarket pegs $52K at 99.9% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 12:28 Tuesday’s New York Fed survey showed 12-month inflation expectations rose to 3.7% as renewed U.S.-Iran airstrikes helped drive oil up about 5%, with Bitcoin hovering near $62,000 ahead of Fed Oil spike hits Bitcoin near $62K as Polymarket pegs $52K at 99.9% Bitcoin Slips Toward $62,000 After Iran-Linked Oil Spike as Polymarket Ladder Prices July 9 Levels Renewed Middle East hostilities that pushed oil prices sharply higher have added a fresh macro shock for Bitcoin, which slipped back toward the low $62,000 area as risk markets reacted. On Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above ___ on July 9?” ladder, traders still price very high odds that Bitcoin will clear the lower strike levels by the July 9 resolution window. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 99.9% chance Bitcoin will be above $52,000 on July 9. Traders are weighing conflicting in

The post Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 12:23 On July 8, 2026, four oil and gas tankers reportedly reversed course after vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting fresh security risk for energy shipping. Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31 Strait of Hormuz tanker turnbacks after vessel attacks send Polymarket “traffic returns to normal” odds sliding A report that four oil and gas tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz after vessel attacks has coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract. The market’s implied probability for a return to normal traffic has fallen to 57.5% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, 2026. Traders marked the contract lo

The post Trump urges US-Spain trade cutoff as Polymarket backs Starmer exit at 97.3% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 12:16 On July 8, 2026, Donald Trump reportedly called for cutting off all U.S. trade with Spain, without detailing how or when it would happen. Trump urges US-Spain trade cutoff as Polymarket backs Starmer exit at 97.3% Trump Calls to Cut Off All U.S. Trade With Spain, Pushing Polymarket’s “Starmer Out Before 2027” Odds Up to 97.3% Donald Trump called for cutting off all U.S. trade with Spain, a headline that landed as Polymarket traders priced an even stronger consensus in the “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” market. The contract’s leading outcome, “Starmer – UK PM,” ticked up to 97.3% from 97.05% as of the latest update. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices “Starmer – UK PM” as the next leader out of power before 2027 at 97.3%. Traders nudged the leader higher after headlines that Trump called to cut off all U

Pulisic's World Cup experience highlights the unpredictability of sports, challenging the reliability of prediction markets and crypto ventures. The post What Christian Pulisic’s World Cup frustration reveals about sports prediction markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Higher mortgage outlook dips Kane to 26.5% in Polymarket Ballon d’Or 2026 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 10:40 For the week ending July 2, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.43%, and a report warned it could stay between 6.50% and 6.70% until 2027. Higher mortgage outlook dips Kane to 26.5% in Polymarket Ballon d’Or 2026 Ballon d’Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane’s Polymarket Odds Dip to 26.5% as Higher-for-Longer Rate Fears Return Mortgage-rate forecasts tied to the Federal Reserve’s policy path were back in focus after a report said borrowing costs may stay elevated for longer, a backdrop that can shift risk appetite across markets. On Polymarket’s “Ballon d’Or Winner 2026” contract, the leading outcome Harry Kane was last priced at 26.5%, down from 27.05%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Harry Kane as the top 2026 Ballon d’Or pick at 26.5% implied odds. Traders nudged Kane lower as broader macro headlines again highlight

The post Omsk refinery hit trims Polymarket odds for United Russia lead to 54.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 10:33 On Monday, industry sources said Ukraine’s drone strike halted Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery after damaging key crude distillation units, with repairs underway and no injuries reported. Omsk refinery hit trims Polymarket odds for United Russia lead to 54.5% Omsk Refinery Drone Strike Hits Russia’s Fuel Outlook, Nudging United Russia’s Polymarket Odds Down to 54.5% A reported Ukrainian drone strike that halted operations at Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk added fresh pressure to Russia’s domestic fuel outlook, a backdrop that can influence perceptions of political stability ahead of the next parliamentary vote. On Polymarket, traders slightly trimmed the market’s implied probability that United Russia (ER) will gain the most seats in the Russian parliamentary election. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices United Russia

Mexico's World Cup performance highlights the growing influence of prediction markets in sports, signaling a shift from traditional fan tokens. The post Mexico’s World Cup ninth-place finish drove $268M in Polymarket trading volume appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 08, 2026 10:28 Early Wednesday, the U.S. launched dozens of strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, rattling markets and raising escalation fears. US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5% U.S. Strikes on Iran Lift Polymarket “Invade Iran Before 2027” Odds to 14.5% The United States launched dozens of strikes on Iran early Wednesday in what it described as retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, deepening fears of a wider Middle East war. On Polymarket, the contract “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” moved up to 14.5% from 11.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 14.5% chance of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, with “No” leading at 85.5%. Odds rose 3.0 percentage points after reports of fresh U.S. strikes on Iran tied to attacks on tankers in the Strai