Middle East tensions lift oil as Polymarket sees 82.5% odds Fed holds in July

The post GOP plans $8M ad blitz as Polymarket keeps Newsom at 18.2% for 2028 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 02:52 Republican strategists are lining up an $8 million advertising push aimed at a Platner replacement, signaling an early bid to shape the next cycle’s narrative. GOP plans $8M ad blitz as Polymarket keeps Newsom at 18.2% for 2028 Republicans’ $8M Ad Blitz Fuels 2028 Nominee Speculation as Gavin Newsom Holds a Slim Polymarket Lead at 18.2% Republicans are preparing an $8 million advertising blitz targeting a Platner replacement, a move that underscores how aggressively the party is gearing up for the next cycle. On Polymarket, traders in the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market kept Gavin Newsom narrowly on top at 18.2% implied odds. Key Takeaways Gavin Newsom leads the Polymarket “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market at 18.2% implied odds. The odds have been repriced as attention shifts to early-cycle politi

The post RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 02:45 On July 8, 2026, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, reinforcing that tightening cycles aren’t universally over. RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5% RBNZ Raises Rates to 2.50%: Polymarket Keeps “Fed Rate Hike in 2026” Near a Coin Flip at 49.5% Yes New Zealand’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move that kept global rate-setter watchers focused on the persistence of tightening cycles. On Polymarket, odds on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate hike at some point in 2026 were priced at 49.5% at the latest update, with the market marginally favoring “No” at 50.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 49.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, with “No” leading at 50.5%. Traders kept the contract near a coin flip as attention st

The post US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 02:38 CENTCOM said the U.S. military launched “powerful strikes” against Iran to impose “heavy costs,” escalating pressure on Tehran. US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5% U.S. Launches “Powerful Strikes” Against Iran, Pushing Polymarket “Invade Iran Before 2027?” Odds to 14.5% The U.S. military said it launched “powerful strikes” against Iran, a development that pushed traders to reprice Polymarket’s “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” contract higher. The market’s implied probability for “Yes” rose to 14.5% from 11.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 14.5% chance the U.S. invades Iran before 2027, with “No” leading at 85.5%. Odds moved up 3.0 percentage points after the U.S. military said it launched “powerful strikes” against Iran. The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, and the “Yes” price is down 2.0 points over

The post British Pound declines to near 1.3350 as US launches strikes on Iran appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The GBP/USD pair loses traction to near 1.3355 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) amid renewed geopolitical tensions after the US renewed strikes on Iran. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June meeting minutes will be published later on Wednesday. Washington unleashed a new wave of strikes against Tehran on Tuesday and revoked a license allowing the country to sell oil after three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters. Geopolitical fears surge following this headline, supporting the Greenback as a safe-haven asset. Westpac analysts said that concerns for the stability of the peace deal reemerged after Iran attacked ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. “Concerns over the inflation outlook were in focus, seeing yields jump higher across the globe,” they wrote. The formal race to replace

The processions highlight potential regional instability and could influence political dynamics, reflecting on Iran's regime's perceived fragility. The post Khamenei funeral processions to pass through Iraq’s Najaf and Karbala appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Iran waiver revoked lifts oil, Polymarket keeps Starmer exit odds at 97.2% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 02:31 Oil climbed about 5% after the United States revoked an Iran oil sanctions waiver, tightening expectations for Iranian crude flows and adding supply uncertainty. Iran waiver revoked lifts oil, Polymarket keeps Starmer exit odds at 97.2% Oil Surges 5% After U.S. Revokes Iran Sanctions Waiver as Polymarket Nudges Starmer Exit Odds Higher Oil prices jumped about 5% after the United States revoked an Iran oil sanctions waiver, a headline that rippled across global markets. On Polymarket, traders nudged up the leading pick in the “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” contract, with Keir Starmer priced as the most likely next leader to exit before 2027. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices “Starmer – UK PM” as the leading outcome at 97.2% (No 2.8%) in “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)”. The market’

Iran's regime resilience amid sanctions may prompt a shift towards diplomacy, impacting regional stability and future U.S.-Iran relations. The post Iran regime support rises despite US sanctions and economic hardship appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

CENTCOM's stance may heighten US-Iran tensions, complicating diplomatic efforts and reducing the likelihood of a near-term nuclear agreement. The post US CENTCOM ready to hold Iran accountable over MoU compliance appeared first on Crypto Briefing.