Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5%

The post US-Iran strikes rattle Hormuz; Polymarket puts July normalization odds at 4.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 09, 2026 04:03 Early Thursday, the U.S. launched new airstrikes on Iran, and Iran fired missiles affecting Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, raising doubts about any interim deal and the status of the Hormuz ceasefire. US-Iran strikes rattle Hormuz; Polymarket puts July normalization odds at 4.5% U.S. Airstrikes on Iran Push Polymarket Odds of Strait of Hormuz Normalizing by July 31 Down to 4.5% U.S. airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s reported missile fire toward Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have sharpened concerns about security around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for commercial shipping. On Polymarket, traders have sharply reduced the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, pushing the contract’s Yes price down to 4.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 95.5% chance of “No” on Strait of Hormuz traffic returnin

The post Gold struggles as Hormuz risks, Fed hike bets limit USD weakness appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from the $4,020 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot in the absence of a notable hawkish shift in the FOMC Minutes and acts as a tailwind for the bullion. However, renewed US-Iran hostilities revive inflation fears and bolster bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase in 2026. This helps limit the downside for the USD and continues to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal. The Minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers were divided with regard to the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the e

The post Canadian Dollar gains ground on surging Oil, rising BoC hike bets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.4165 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. A rise in crude oil prices provides some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders await the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report later on Thursday. Axios reported that the US strikes hit a rail line in Golestan province in northeastern Iran, near the border, using cruise missiles. It marked the first US strike on Iranian infrastructure since the ceasefire took hold. Iran said multiple US artillery shells struck a railway bridge west of Aghala in Golestan early Thursday, triggering several explosions. Earlier, US President Donald Trump said an interim agreement to end the war with Iran was “over.” Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned Washington that any U.S. military action will prompt retaliation. It is worth notin

The post US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 09, 2026 02:03 On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% U.S. Strikes Iran During Khamenei Funeral: Polymarket Odds Drop on Hormuz Traffic Normalization The U.S. launched new strikes on Iran despite President Donald Trump saying attacks would pause during the seven-day funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing responses to attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” was last priced at 58.5% for Yes, down from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dece

The post Netanyahu warns on Turkey F-35s as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 40% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 09, 2026 00:04 In a CNN interview, Benjamin Netanyahu said he warned Donald Trump that a U.S. sale of F-35 jets to Turkey could upset the Middle East balance of power. Netanyahu warns on Turkey F-35s as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 40% Netanyahu Warns Against U.S. F-35 Sale to Turkey as Polymarket Lifts Gadi Eizenkot’s Next Israel PM Odds Benjamin Netanyahu sharpened his public criticism of a potential U.S. sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey in comments to CNN, framing Ankara as an unreliable partner and warning of a regional power shift. Polymarket traders nudged higher the odds in the contract “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.95%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the top pick at 39.95% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election. Trad

The post US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 22:03 Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal US Strikes on Iran Send Polymarket Odds Crashing for “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by July 31?” The Strait of Hormuz remained under renewed security strain after the United States said it launched strikes on Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the waterway. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” was priced at 4.5% for Yes, implying traders overwhelmingly expect disruptions to persist through the deadline. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the leading outcome as No a

The post Kyiv hit before NATO Ankara summit as Polymarket puts Putin exit by 2027 at 18% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 20:08 A Russian missile strike destroyed a residential building in Kyiv as crews cleared debris after an overnight barrage that killed at least 22 people, with Ukraine saying 68 missiles and 351 drones Kyiv hit before NATO Ankara summit as Polymarket puts Putin exit by 2027 at 18% Kyiv Missile Barrage Ahead of NATO Ankara Summit Pushes Polymarket “Putin Out by June 30, 2027” Odds to 18% Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv ahead of a NATO summit in Ankara sharpened focus on Vladimir Putin’s war strategy, as Ukraine’s leaders and analysts framed the barrage as both external signaling and domestic messaging. On Polymarket, the “Putin out as President of Russia by…?” ladder has repriced higher for the longest-dated step, with the June 30, 2027 line at 18% Yes (up from 8.5%). Key Takeaways Polymarket prices an 18% cha

The post Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 20:03 On July 7, 2026, Donald Trump faulted NATO allies for not backing the U.S. during its conflict with Iran, questioning the alliance’s burden-sharing. Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% Trump Slams NATO Allies as Polymarket Reprices Strait of Hormuz Normal-Traffic Odds to 58% U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO allies over support during a conflict with Iran coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract. The market’s implied probability for a return to normal traffic fell to 58% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, with No at 42%. Traders marked down the contract after Trump criticized several NATO allies for refusing