Polymarket keeps Golden Ball odds flat at 50% as Mbappe–Messi buzz grows

The post Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forces appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 11, 2026 02:03 Kevin Warsh named experts to five Federal Reserve task forces to review policy and operations, with findings to be reported back to FOMC officials and potential changes expected this year. Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forces Polymarket Reprices 2026 Fed Rate-Cuts Ladder After Warsh Task-Force Announcement—Still a “No Cuts” Market Polymarket traders are still heavily pricing a “no cuts” 2026 outcome in the Fed rate-cuts ladder, even after the leading strike moved down to 77.55% on $41.68M volume. The repricing follows news that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named members to five task forces reviewing Fed policy and operations—an event the market treated as more about process than an immediate pivot to easier policy. Key Takeaways Prediction: Polymarket’s leading outcome is 0 cuts (0 bps)

The post Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 11, 2026 00:10 Fresh reports of new Iran conflict attacks surfaced as a Washington official denied US involvement and said technical talks with Iran continue. Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15 Iran-Linked Headlines Push Polymarket to a 99.65% “No” on Strait of Hormuz Normal Traffic by July 15 On Polymarket, traders are pricing a near-certain “No” on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15, with Yes at 0.35% and No at 99.65% on $8.69M matched. The latest Iran-focused headlines are acting as a catalyst, but the sharper story is the contract’s steep odds compression and high-volatility path into the deadline. Key Takeaways Prediction-market pricing strongly favors “No” at 99.65% implied, with “Yes” at 0.35% on the July 15 normal-traffic question. The Iran-related news cycle coincides with trad

The post Polymarket odds lift Troy Jackson to 57.5% in Maine Dem Senate nominee race appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 10, 2026 22:09 A recent podcast episode detailed a rapidly escalating crisis around Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, including calls for him to step down amid controversies and sexual abuse allegations. Polymarket odds lift Troy Jackson to 57.5% in Maine Dem Senate nominee race Polymarket Reprices Maine Democratic Senate Nominee Odds After Candidate Turmoil Catalyst Polymarket traders have pushed the Maine Democratic Senate nominee market toward Troy Jackson, lifting his implied odds to 57.5% on $416,678 of volume. The move follows a news catalyst about turmoil around a Maine Senate candidate, and the market data shows a 7.5-point jump with strengthening consensus into the July 27 resolution. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading pick is Troy Jackson at 57.5% implied odds (42.5% No). A news item describing fast-moving turmoil ar

The post Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 10, 2026 22:04 Explosions were reported across parts of Iran as U.S. Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 Polymarket Slams “Yes” After Iran Explosion Reports Reprice Strait of Hormuz Normalization Risk On Polymarket, traders have pushed the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” contract sharply toward No, with Yes down to 8.5% on $14.23M matched. The repricing follows fresh reports of explosions in Iran and escalating regional strikes, and the market’s move is visible in both the large swing from 42% and the recent high-volatility tape. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 91.5% chance of “No” (only 8.5% Yes) that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. The contract repriced lower after reports of explosions in Iran and continued tit-for-tat strikes, aligning traders toward prolo

The post Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 10, 2026 20:15 After the Fed released June meeting minutes showing officials split on where rates end 2026, a Kalshi report put the chance of a hike this year near 54%. Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger Polymarket Reprices the September 2026 Fed Decision Ladder After Split Signals in the June Minutes Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in September?” ladder is holding steady, with “No change” leading at 56.5% (Yes 56.5% / No 43.5%) on $2,249,526 matched. The pricing comes as another prediction market (Kalshi) highlighted how divided rate expectations look after the Fed’s June meeting minutes, a useful cross-check on how traders are mapping policy uncertainty into specific September outcomes. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies “No change” is the most likely September result at 56.5% (Yes 56.5% / No 43.5%), ahead of a 25 bps inc

Despite Yamal's World Cup fame, his fan tokens highlight the necessity of utility and official partnerships over mere celebrity influence in crypto. The post Lamine Yamal’s World Cup heroics haven’t moved the needle for his Solana fan tokens appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $52K July 12 after NH bond rejection appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 10, 2026 20:08 On July 8, New Hampshire’s Executive Council voted 3-2 to reject a proposed $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond after a public finance hearing. Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $52K July 12 after NH bond rejection Polymarket Holds Steady After New Hampshire Rejects $100M Bitcoin-Backed Bond, Keeping the “BTC Above” Ladder Near-Certa Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above ___ on July 12?” ladder is pricing an extremely high chance that BTC clears the lower strikes, with $335,544 matched and the top line sitting at 99.95% for the leading $52,000 outcome. The backdrop catalyst is New Hampshire’s rejection of a proposed $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond, a test of how quickly traders translate policy headlines into strike-by-strike probabilities. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies ~99.95% that Bitcoin is above $52,000 o

The post Polymarket: Switzerland lead dips to 27.5% for next US-Iran talks venue appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 10, 2026 20:03 On July 9, 2026, a report said the US expanded strikes in Iran, while Iranian officials reported civilian damage across Bushehr province near key infrastructure. Polymarket: Switzerland lead dips to 27.5% for next US-Iran talks venue Polymarket Softens Switzerland Lead After Strike-Expansion Headlines Reprice US–Iran Talks Venue Risk Polymarket traders are leaning toward Switzerland as the most likely venue for the next round of US-Iran peace talks, but the lead has softened to 27.5% on $2.60M matched. The move follows fresh headlines about expanded US strikes in Iran, and the market’s own 24h swing shows how quickly venue expectations can decay under escalation risk. Key Takeaways Top outcome is Switzerland at 27.5% implied odds (Yes 27.5% / No 72.5%), ahead of Pakistan at 23.3% (Yes 23.3% / No 76.7%). After the strike-