The post Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization slide to 62.5% on Gulf flare-up appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang
Jul 10, 2026 04:03
The U.S. military said it ended a new round of strikes in Iran after hitting about 90 targets, as Iran responded with attacks affecting U.S.-allied Gulf states.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization slide to 62.5% on Gulf flare-up Polymarket Reprices Hormuz “Traffic Normal by Dec. 31” After U.S.-Iran Escalation On Polymarket, the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract now prices a 62.5% chance of “Yes,” down from 85.5% previously on $4,715,952 matched. The repricing follows fresh reports of intensifying U.S.-Iran fire across the Persian Gulf, and highlights how quickly traders discount year-end normalization risk. Key Takeaways Polymarket currently implies 62.5% “Yes” (37.5% “No”) that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31. The odds moved sharply lower (
The post Polymarket odds peg BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder tightens appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang
Jul 10, 2026 06:03
Bitcoin held above $62,000 as U.S.-Iran tensions flared again, while oil rose a third day and gold fell a fourth, leaving crypto relatively muted.
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder tightens Polymarket’s BTC July 12 Ladder Holds Steady After U.S.-Iran Tension Headlines Polymarket’s Bitcoin ladder for July 12 is pricing a high-confidence floor, with “BTC above $52,000” at 99.95% on $280,453 in volume. The tight range of per-strike odds follows a macro-news beat about muted crypto reaction to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, giving a clean read on where traders place the key cutoff levels by expiry. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading line is BTC above $52,000 on July 12 at 99.95% implied odds. After a headline framing bitcoin as steady amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, the ladder concentrates probabi
The post Bitcoin, XRP, DOGE Rise as US-Iran Technical Talks to Continue Despite Strikes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) have recovered as technical talks between the US and Iran continue, according to a US official. This comes as Middle East tensions rise following two days of strikes that threatened to collapse an already fragile ceasefire, with President Trump saying the ceasefire is “over.” Technical Talks with Iran Will Proceed, Says US Official A US official confirmed that the US remains committed to a resolution and that technical talks with Iran will proceed, Bloomberg reported. These focus on issues including nuclear matters, the performance-based MOU, sanctions, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Oil prices slipped lower, the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.54%, and the US dollar index (DXY) fell toward 100.5 on Friday. This helped trigger a significant jump in Asian stock markets and crypt
The post Gold flatlines above $4,100 as soft USD meets Fed hike bets, Iran risk appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest Asian session dip to the $4,109-$4,108 region on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction. The US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated for the third consecutive day in the wake of Wednesday’s less hawkish FOMC Minutes and offers some support to the commodity. However, prospects of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in 2026 remain active. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, could limit USD losses, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recovery from a one-week low set on Wednesday. The minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers were divided over the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the e
The post Polymarket files three NFA applications for US margin trading appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Polymarket has filed three registration applications with the National Futures Association as it seeks to introduce margin trading for U.S. users. Summary Polymarket filed three NFA registration applications as it seeks to offer margin trading in the U.S. The platform would still need CFTC approval before introducing leveraged event contracts. Kalshi affiliate Kinetic Markets secured similar NFA approvals in March 2026. According to the National Futures Association’s BASIC database, Polymarket affiliate Coming Home GBA LLC submitted the applications through PM Derivatives LLC on July 3. The filings seek registration as a futures commission merchant, an NFA member, and a swap firm. Bloomberg previously identified Coming Home GBA as an entity affiliated with Polymarket. Approval as a futures commission merchant would allow Polymarket to support trades in which users provide only pa
Polymarket has filed three registration applications with the National Futures Association as it seeks to introduce margin trading for U.S. users. According to the National Futures Association’s BASIC database, Polymarket affiliate Coming Home GBA LLC submitted the applications through PM…
The post United States Dollar Index falls to three-week low amid signs of US-Iran war de-escalation appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The US Dollar (USD) extends its losing streak for the third trading day on Friday amid signs of de-escalation in the ongoing clash between the United States (US) and Iran. In the Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% lower to near 100.60, revisiting the three-week low. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.22% -0.27% -0.57% -0.19% -0.31% -0.55% -0.40% EUR 0.22% -0.05% -0.35% 0.05% -0.12% -0.34% -0.18% GBP 0.27% 0.05% -0.33% 0.08% -0.08% -0.28% -0.14% JPY 0.57% 0.35% 0.33% 0.40% 0.27% 0.01% 0.17% CAD 0.19% -0.05% -0.08% -0.40% -0.14% -0.37% -0.21% AUD 0.31% 0.12% 0.08% -0.27% 0.14% -0.24% -0.11% NZD
The post Polymarket prices BTC above $52K at 99.95% as CLARITY Act chatter builds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 10, 2026 02:03
A new report says Bitcoin’s rebound is being pitched as a “CLARITY Act” catalyst over the next four weeks, even as no Senate floor vote is scheduled and delays could push action past Aug. 7.
Polymarket prices BTC above $52K at 99.95% as CLARITY Act chatter builds Polymarket Holds Steady as CLARITY Act Timeline Becomes a Catalyst Narrative for Bitcoin July 11 Strikes Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above ___ on July 11?” ladder is pricing a high-confidence floor at the lower strikes, with $335,670 traded and the leading $52,000 outcome sitting at 99.95% Yes. The setup comes as traders digest a Washington-focused catalyst narrative tied to the CLARITY Act timeline, but the ladder shows where conviction fades at higher levels. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 99.95% chance Bitcoin is above $52,000 on July 11 (and 99.05% above $6
The post Goldman Sachs Limits, but Doesn’t Stop, Employees Using Kalshi and Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Goldman Sachs has told employees to confine their prediction market activity to sports and entertainment. The bank hopes to limit compliance risks tied to betting on elections, interest rates, and other market-moving events. The bank issued the policy through an internal memo. It warned that repeated violations could lead to termination, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times. Kalshi and Polymarket Face Insider Trading Scrutiny Both platforms have drawn scrutiny over users profiting from advance knowledge of major events. Lookonchain flagged three wallets that netted more than $630,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal hours before his capture. Nobel Peace Prize organizers separately investigated a possible leak after a run of successful wagers on the eventual winner. Kalshi and Polymarket have since rolled out new rules targeting insider tra
