The post Polymarket odds jump to 86% for Fed hold in July after tariff inflation talk appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Joerg Hiller
Jul 10, 2026 08:14
A New York Fed post warned U.S. firms plan more tariff-linked price hikes over the next six months, with increases arriving in a staggered “trickle up” pattern as tariffs shift.
Polymarket odds jump to 86% for Fed hold in July after tariff inflation talk Polymarket Jumps to 85.5% “No Change” After Tariff-Linked Inflation Signal Reframes July Fed Odds Polymarket traders are pricing an 85.5% chance that the Fed makes no change at its July 2026 meeting, a +14.0pp jump from 71.5% as the market digested a fresh inflation-through-tariffs narrative. The ladder contract’s per-outcome odds and $48.58M in volume show where disagreement concentrates: “no change” versus a 25 bps hike. Key Takeaways Prediction: Polymarket’s leading outcome is “No change” at 85.5% implied odds. Basis: After a tariff-linked pricing and inflation d
The post Gold Retreats 1.8% Amid Middle East Tensions and Rising Rate Expectations appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Key Takeaways Spot gold declined 0.6% Friday to settle at $4,101.11 per ounce, marking a 1.8% weekly decrease President Trump ended the Iran ceasefire and authorized additional military operations Surging crude prices are fueling inflation concerns, increasing market expectations for a 2026 Fed rate increase Elevated interest rates diminish gold’s attractiveness by raising opportunity costs for the zero-yield asset Silver plunged more than 4% over the week; platinum showed resilience with just a 0.3% weekly drop Precious metals faced downward pressure on Friday, with gold headed for a weekly decline as heightened military tensions between the United States and Iran combined with mounting interest rate concerns. Spot gold decreased 0.6% to reach $4,101.11 per ounce. Gold futures contracts fell 0.8% to $4,108.90. Weekly performance showed spot gold declining approximate
The post NEAR Price Prediction: Dead Money at $1.95 — But a $1.75 Flush or $2.14 SMA50 Reclaim Is Coming Fast appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Joerg Hiller
Jul 10, 2026 09:02
NEAR is bleeding out in a flat consolidation trap between $1.89 and $1.97, with momentum indicators running on fumes — a failure to hold $1.90 opens a swift move toward $1.75, but a clean break abo…
Market Context: Why NEAR is Moving Now NEAR Protocol isn’t moving — and that’s the tell. A 24-hour range of just $0.08 on $17.5 million in Binance spot volume isn’t consolidation building toward a breakout; it’s a market that has lost directional conviction entirely. The 0.93% daily gain is noise. What matters is that NEAR is sitting roughly 9% below its 50-day moving average at $2.14, pinned under a ceiling it hasn’t been able to reclaim. Meanwhile, the SMA200 at $1.56 is the only reason longer-term bulls can point to any structural health at all — the coin has spent months recovering from lower
Persistent inflation pressures may force the Fed to prioritize rate hikes over labor market concerns, impacting risk assets and economic growth.
The post Fed officials weigh rate hikes as inflation runs hot at 4.1% appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post North Carolina Bill Recognizes CFTC’s ‘Federal Regulatory Authority’ Over Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
In brief North Carolina has passed a law recognizing the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, breaking with states trying to police them as gambling. The provision, signed by Governor Josh Stein on July 7, taxes the platforms at 6% of their North Carolina-attributable net trading fees, versus a 23% rate on sports betting operators. It lands days after a New York judge dealt Kalshi a major courtroom setback, deepening a national split headed for the higher courts. North Carolina has become one of the few states to formally side with federal regulators in the escalating fight over prediction markets, enacting a law that recognizes the CFTC’s authority over platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Governor Josh Stein signed the measure on July 7 as part of the state’s 2026 budget, Senate Bill 257. A prediction market reg
The post Polymarket Moves Closer to U.S. Margin Trading With Key Regulatory Filing appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Polymarket has begun seeking U.S. approval for margin trading. CFTC approval is needed to allow non-cash-collateralised trades. The largest prediction market platform, Polymarket, is not a place where people bet on elections anymore. The platform is making a deliberate push toward institutional territory. On July 3, Polymarket filed an application through its affiliate, Coming Home GBA LLC, to operate as a futures commission merchant with the National Futures Association. That is a regulatory step which would allow the platform to offer margin trading to U.S. users for the first time. Margin trading lets users open leveraged positions by borrowing funds, controlling larger positions without putting up the full capital upfront. For prediction markets, that’s a significant upgrade. One that shifts the platform from a retail-first product to something that institutiona
The post Polymarket takes next step in U.S. comeback with margin trading plan appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Prediction market Polymarket applied for a license to offer U.S. users margin trading, enabling them to place bets with less upfront capital, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Polymarket’s U.S. affiliate, Coming Home GBA LLC, filed for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association, Bloomberg said, citing a company representative. Polymarket will also require authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for changes to its rulebook that would allow trading without fully collateralized positions. Prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer yes-or-no wagers on the outcomes of events, such as weather, sports and elections. Margin trading lets investors open positions with less upfront capital, a practice common in traditional markets. Kalshi received clearance to offer margin trading in March. Polymarket’s applicat
The post BoJ will likely revise 2026 GDP forecast higher in Q2 report appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
According to sources, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may revise up the fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in the quarterly report due in July. The BoJ is expected to report that it will keep focus on the risk of inflation overshooting the central bank’s target, Reuters reports. The sources also stated that the BoJ will keep interest rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance pledging to continue raising rates. Market reaction The Japanese Yen (JPY) has not shown an immediate reaction to the headlines mentioned above. At press time, the USD/JPY is down 0.45% to near 169.70 even after recovering some of its early losses. Bank of Japan FAQs The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of aroun
