The post South Korean Won: Oil-linked range view into BoK meeting – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay argues that elevated South Korean inflation strengthens the case for a 25bp Bank of Korea (BoK) hike to 2.75% on 16 July. USD/KRW has fallen from 1560 to 1506 on earlier Oil weakness, but the bank now expects the pair to trade in a 1500–1520 range, with Oil prices and global risk sentiment remaining key drivers. Won pressured by inflation and Oil “South Korea’s inflation remained elevated in June, reinforcing the view that the Bank of Korea (BoK) is on course to hike rates next week. Headline CPI inflation was slightly higher at 3.2% yoy from 3.1% in May, marking the highest reading since December 2023. It remained well above BoK’s 2% target.” “Other factors expected to keep inflationary pressures firm include the weak won and robust wage growth linked to the AI-driven semiconductor boom.” “The latest inflation report strengthens the case for Bo
The post Gold rebounds above $4,100 as falling Oil weighs on US Dollar appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold (XAU/USD) price advances during the North American session on Thursday, up over 1.30% as the US Dollar (USD) retreats due to falling Oil prices amid easing tensions in the Middle East. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,132 after bouncing off weekly lows of around $4,021 hit on Wednesday. XAU/USD rises as Middle East tensions ease, pressuring Dollar The US-Iran conflict grabbed the headlines during the last two days as both parties exchanged attacks, threatening to derail negotiations that had been scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Saturday before the last escalation. Oil prices jumped, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, reclaiming the $ 75.00-per-barrel barrier, but retreated on Thursday. The jump in energy prices grew speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise borrowing costs to tame already high inflation near 4.2% as reported in May. Now eye
The post South Korean Won: Asia outperformer on flows and BoK – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Societe Generale strategists note the Korean Won (KRW) has become Asia’s best performer in early H2, rallying nearly 2.8% as USD/KRW drops from around 1,550 to near 1,500. They link gains to FX conversion flows tied to SK Hynix ADRs and expectations of a 25 bp Bank of Korea (BoK) hike to 2.75%, following a weak first half for KRW. Won rally driven by flows and policy “Elsewhere in EM, the KRW has emerged as Asia’s best performer in early 2H, with a gain of nearly 2.8% (spot). The sharp drop from around 1,550 in early July to near 1,500 coincided with profit taking in the KOSPI.” “We recently highlighted the shift in the FX regime from one driven primarily by trade balances to one increasingly influenced by portfolio flows, resulting in a more pronounced inverse correlation between the KRW and KOSPI amid concerns of frothy semiconductor valuations incl Samsung and SK Hyn
The post United States Dollar Index falls as Middle East calm cools inflation fears appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.14% to 100.93 on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East ease, driving Oil prices lower and trimming Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bets spurred by the energy shock. DXY slips as Hormuz calm drags Oil, Fed bets lower Geopolitics grabbed the attention after the US and Iran exchanged attacks during the last two days. The US President Donald Trump is growing impatient about the outcome of the negotiations with Iran, adding that the agreement was “over.” The US military attacked 90 military positions near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, intending to weaken Iran’s ability to attack vessels transiting through the strait. Meanwhile, Iran targeted US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the completion of the task, which weighed on
The post European Central Bank: September hike prospects stay firm – Nordea appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich argues that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to continue tightening policy, with the outlook heavily dependent on Middle East developments and energy prices. He notes that a July move is now unlikely after lower inflation and falling Oil, but sees a September rate hike as probable, in line with current market pricing. ECB path tied to energy risks “The ECB outlook still hinges to a large extent on the developments in the Middle East and in energy prices.” “While a July hike is likely to be off the table without a significant jump in energy prices, a September rate move looks much more likely.” “However, the account supported the view that even a quick end to the conflict would not automatically mean that the ECB would be done hiking rates.” “The major fall seen in energy prices on the back of hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower-than
The post Bank of Korea defends bank-first stablecoin plan amid bill deadlock appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Bank of Korea has reaffirmed that won-denominated stablecoins should initially be issued through bank-led consortiums, reinforcing its position as South Korea’s digital asset legislation remains stalled. Summary Bank of Korea has reaffirmed support for bank-led issuance of won-backed stablecoins. The central bank plans to expand deposit-token pilots for public payments and services. Disagreements over stablecoin rules continue to delay South Korea’s Digital Asset Basic Act. According to local reports from Digital Asset and EDaily, the Bank of Korea (BOK) restated its position in documents submitted on Thursday to the National Assembly’s finance committee. The central bank argued that bank-led consortiums should receive priority when issuing won-backed stablecoins and also proposed creating a statutory policy body that would bring together financial regulators and other
The Bank of Korea has reaffirmed that won-denominated stablecoins should initially be issued through bank-led consortiums, reinforcing its position as South Korea’s digital asset legislation remains stalled. According to local reports from Digital Asset and EDaily, the Bank of Korea…
The post South Korean Won: Gains hinge on supportive flows against US Dollar – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Christopher Wong notes that Korean Won strength remains largely flow-driven, with USD/KRW dropping below 1,500 on offshore fund repatriation and official vigilance. While bearish momentum persists, Wong expects the pullback to moderate and sees a sustained break below 1,500 as requiring a benign backdrop for the Dollar, Oil and equities. Flow-driven strength faces key levels “KRW continued to outperform, with USD/KRW falling from almost 1,560 at the start of the month to sub-1500 briefly yesterday before rebounding. The move looks flow-driven rather than risk or macro-driven.” “KRW strengthened despite a less friendly macro backdrop, including the oil spike, renewed geopolitical concerns and KOSPI underperformance. USD/KRW appears to have been weighed by inflows and repatriation of funds raised offshore, while official vigilance has also stayed high as Korea shifts i
The post Fed’s Williams: Inflation is still ‘far too high’ appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams said in the Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning Workshop in New York on Thursday that inflation remains “far too high,” while stressing that policymakers are actively debating different inflation scenarios as energy prices, artificial intelligence investment and productivity trends shape the outlook. Key takeaways: Inflation is still “far too high,” keeping the Federal Reserve focused on the risks to price stability. Markets still expect Oil prices to decline over the next six to 12 months. Monetary policy remains focused on how energy prices feed through into inflation. AI investment is currently driving inflation, adding to demand and cost pressure. The Fed is actively debating various inflation scenarios as uncertainty remains elevated. Williams said the latest Fed Minutes captured a “collective reaction function,” refl
