Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares
The post Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 10, 2026 18:03 At NATO leaders’ talks in Ankara, the US-Israel war on Iran and a dispute over securing the Strait of Hormuz eclipsed Ukraine and spending plans, with European allies refusing a patrol role. Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares Polymarket Bumps “U.S. Invade Iran Before 2027?” to 16.5% After Strait of Hormuz Security Talk Polymarket’s “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” contract ticked up to 16.5% Yes (83.5% No) on $40.3M matched volume, a 5.0-point jump from 11.5%. The move follows fresh discussion around Strait of Hormuz security and alliance coordination, giving traders a real-time read on escalation risk into the 2026-12-31 resolution window. Key Takeaways Polymarket still prices “No” as the leading outcome at 83.5% (Yes 16.5%) for a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A 5