The US strikes on Iranian sites near the Strait of Hormuz could destabilize global energy markets and heighten geopolitical tensions.
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Bitcoin held above $62,000 on Thursday while the assets that are supposed to absorb a war premium moved in opposite directions. Brent crude climbed 1% to $78.80 a barrel, a third consecutive session of gains, after the U.S. military completed another round of strikes against Iran and both sides raised the prospect of closing the Strait of Hormuz. Gold extended its slide to a fourth day at around $4,060 an ounce. Government bonds in Japan, Australia and New Zealand fell, extending Wednesday’s global selloff, with two-year Treasury yields pushing toward their 2026 high. Bitcoin traded at $62,009, down 1.2% over 24 hours and up 1.6% on the week. Ether was at $1,730, also off 1.2% on the day but up 5.7% over seven sessions. Solana was the laggard at $77.25, shedding 1.8% and 1.7% on the week. XRP slipped 0.7% to $1.09, TRON added 4% over seven days, and hype
The post US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 09, 2026 02:03
On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% U.S. Strikes Iran During Khamenei Funeral: Polymarket Odds Drop on Hormuz Traffic Normalization The U.S. launched new strikes on Iran despite President Donald Trump saying attacks would pause during the seven-day funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing responses to attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” was last priced at 58.5% for Yes, down from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dece
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Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the United States (US) after two days of renewed US strikes, saying that any U.S. military action will prompt retaliation. Ghalibaf emphasized that access to the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control. “America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free. Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit. Don’t flail around pointlessly, or you’ll sink even deeper: the Strait of Hormuz will only open with ‘Iranian arrangements,’ not American threats,” said Ghalibaf on X. The Kuwaiti military said on Thursday that the country’s air defenses are intercepting “hostile missile and drone attacks,” and Kuwait is responding to ‘hostile’ missile, drone attacks. Meanwhile, missile alerts are sounding in Bahrain and Qatar after the US launched fresh airstrikes against Iran.
The post US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Alvin Lang
Jul 08, 2026 22:03
Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket
US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal US Strikes on Iran Send Polymarket Odds Crashing for “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by July 31?” The Strait of Hormuz remained under renewed security strain after the United States said it launched strikes on Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the waterway. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” was priced at 4.5% for Yes, implying traders overwhelmingly expect disruptions to persist through the deadline. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the leading outcome as No a
The renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz heightens geopolitical tensions, impacting global markets and potentially disrupting energy supplies.
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The post Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 08, 2026 20:03
On July 7, 2026, Donald Trump faulted NATO allies for not backing the U.S. during its conflict with Iran, questioning the alliance’s burden-sharing.
Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% Trump Slams NATO Allies as Polymarket Reprices Strait of Hormuz Normal-Traffic Odds to 58% U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO allies over support during a conflict with Iran coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract. The market’s implied probability for a return to normal traffic fell to 58% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, with No at 42%. Traders marked down the contract after Trump criticized several NATO allies for refusing
The post Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang
Jul 08, 2026 14:20
A report said Donald Trump claimed the U.S. attacked Iran’s Kharg Island the previous night and floated reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports.
Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5% Trump Cites Kharg Island Attack, Blockade Threat — Polymarket Shifts to “No” on Strait of Hormuz Normalization by July 3 Comments attributed to Donald Trump about a U.S. attack on Iran’s Kharg Island and a possible reinstatement of a blockade of Iranian ports are being reflected in Polymarket pricing on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. The contract’s odds have shifted sharply toward a “No” outcome as traders weigh renewed disruption risk. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 95.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic does not return to normal by July 31, versus 4.5% fo
The post Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 08, 2026 12:23
On July 8, 2026, four oil and gas tankers reportedly reversed course after vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting fresh security risk for energy shipping.
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31 Strait of Hormuz tanker turnbacks after vessel attacks send Polymarket “traffic returns to normal” odds sliding A report that four oil and gas tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz after vessel attacks has coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract. The market’s implied probability for a return to normal traffic has fallen to 57.5% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, 2026. Traders marked the contract lo