The post US Dollar: Fed pricing questioned as disinflation looms – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that June FOMC minutes may already be stale as weaker labour data and lower energy prices challenge the Fed’s hawkish dot plot. He sees OIS pricing as too aggressive, with rate hikes over-priced and a rate cut by March 2027 more likely than another hike. Dollar strength, he says, has been driven by rate spreads and leveraged long positioning, but this may reverse if disinflation resumes. Fed expectations and Dollar positioning “The FX market is increasingly being driven once again by rates spreads with our rolling correlations indicating that and the Fed rate hike pricing has been the key driver of renewed US dollar buying. A lot of this pricing appears driven by the perception that Fed Chair Warsh has been hawkish. But apart from reaffirming the pursuit of achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation goal there is limited evidence to point to of Warsh being par
The post New Zealand Dollar gives away gains amid renewed tensions in the Middle East appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) rally against the US Dollar (USD) has been short-lived, as the pair returned to sub-0.5700 levels during the European session after being rejected at the 0.5725 area earlier in the day. Market concerns about the status of the US-Iran ceasefire have hammered risk appetite, offsetting the positive Kiwi’s reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish hike. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Wednesday that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, and that, in his opinion, the memorandum of understanding “is over,” although he added that negotiators can “keep talking if they want.” These remarks come after the rival countries exchanged attacks earlier on the day and the US revoked Iran’s authorization to export Crude. The resumption of the hostilities has boosted US Treasury yields, sending the safe-haven US Dollar h
The post US Dollar: FOMC minutes to highlight hawkish debate – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TD Securities strategists preview the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, expecting more insight into the policy debate than provided by Chair Warsh’s press conference. They highlight internal disagreement over whether policy is sufficiently restrictive as inflation risks rise, with many officials seeing scope for both hikes and a pause, and most potentially favoring renewed tightening if inflation continues to surprise higher. Minutes to reveal policy divisions “The June FOMC minutes may reveal more about the policy debate than Chair Warsh did at his press conference.” “The apparent “family fight” likely focused on whether policy was restrictive enough given rising inflation risks.” “While “many” participants likely saw a case for both hikes and holding steady this year, the Committee’s recent hawkish tilt suggests “most” could have favored renewed tightenin
The post Gold declines as Trump ends Iran deal, markets eye Fed minutes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,050 on Wednesday, down 1.40% on the day at the time of writing, as investors favor the US Dollar (USD) following a fresh deterioration in tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The precious metal remains under pressure despite the increasingly fragile geopolitical backdrop, as markets expect that persistently higher energy prices could keep US monetary policy restrictive. Market sentiment deteriorated after US President Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was now “over.” Trump also stated that he no longer wanted to deal with Iran, while announcing trade measures against Spain and renewing his criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). These remarks supported the US Dollar, while Oil prices advanced amid rising concerns over global supply disruptions. Tensions es
The post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro hesitates above 1.1400 as geopolitical risks mount appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Euro (EUR) shows marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday and has returned to levels just above 1.1400 during the European trading session after rejection at 1.1430. A new round of hostilities in Iran and investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting are keeping Euro bulls in check. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Wednesday that the ceasefire is over and that, in his view, the memorandum of understanding is no longer in effect. These comments follow a fresh bout of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran, and the revocation of the US authorisation to sell Iranian Oil. The market reaction has been tame so far, as investors continue to view these events as manoeuvres to gain leverage in the negotiation process. Beyond that, investors remain wary of placing large directio
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to sustained volatility in global markets, impacting oil supply and investor confidence.
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The post Why Australian Dollar turns upside down in European session on Wednesday? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives back its early gains and turns lower to near 0.6915 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which aimed for a ceasefire between them, seems over, have prompted demand for safe-haven assets. “I think MoU with Iran is over,” US President Trump said. “I don’t want to deal with Iran. They are sick people,” he added. S&P 500 futures tumble over 0.7% to near 7,445, reflecting a weak risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, turns almost flat around 101.15 after recovering early losses. Earlier in the day, the Australian Dollar outperformed as RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter
The post Australian Dollar: Pullback within broader upside risk against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes AUD/USD has retreated from recent highs after failing to clear resistance near 0.6980. Intraday downside is seen as limited within 0.6900–0.6950, while the 1–3 week outlook still flags tentative upside momentum and rising odds of a break above 0.6980, even as the 1–3 month view remains structurally negative below 0.6835. Short-term range versus medium-term downside “24-HOUR VIEW: AUD rose to a high of 0.6955 on Monday. Yesterday, we stated that “the rapidly increasing upward momentum suggests upside risks, even though the major resistance at 0.6980 could be just out of reach.” We noted that “there is another resistance at 0.6970.” We were incorrect, as AUD retreated sharply to a low of 0.6921. While AUD could retreat further, given the lacklustre downward momentum, any decline is likely to be contained within a 0.
The post Dow Jones futures fall on increasing risk aversion, FOMC Minutes awaited appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Dow Jones futures decline 0.40% to trade around 52,980 during European trading hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.17% and 0.14%, trading near 7,540 and 29,350, respectively. Global financial markets are on edge as plunging US stock futures signal deep investor anxiety ahead of Wednesday’s highly anticipated release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This release marks the first under newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and traders are aggressively parsing the landscape for critical clues regarding the future path of US interest rates. This US central bank watching is unfolding against a backdrop of severe geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Risk aversion spiked across global boards following US airstrikes in southern Iran, a direct military intervention responding to previous Iranian attacks on commercial shipping vesse
