Rising US-Iran tensions may hinder diplomatic progress, affecting nuclear negotiations and reducing chances of sanctions relief by 2026.
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Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed as renewed Iran tensions hit risk appetite, with stocks falling and Oil (Brent) jumping 6%. They argue markets are overreacting to June’s hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pivot, noting Chair Warsh’s criticism of the dots and his reluctance to front-run Federal Reserve (Fed) reform task forces, while 37 bps of tightening priced by December still looks excessive. Iran tensions and FOMC expectations “Risk appetite has slumped, with global stocks down sharply.” “The dollar picked up some support earlier in London trade following the president’s ceasefire comments, but gains are limited and the DXY is still trading at a small net loss on the day.” “Developments leave markets pondering whether this is a brief and temporary rupture in the peace process or a prelude to another s
The post Asia FX: Diverging paths under Dollar strength – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that external pressures on Asia FX persist as the US Dollar and US Treasury yields stay firm, with markets fully pricing another Fed hike by October. He notes that most Asian currencies have weakened against the Dollar since the June FOMC, but domestic fundamentals and central bank actions are set to drive divergent performances across the region. Regional currencies under external pressure “Most Asian currencies have weakened against the US dollar since the 18 June FOMC meeting.” “In Indonesia, rupiah volatility has eased considerably following Bank Indonesia’s intensified support measures, including policy rate hikes and higher SRBI yields. Nonetheless, the rupiah remains sensitive to higher US yields.” “Meanwhile, the domestic macro backdrop has become somewhat less supportive. Manufacturing activity contracted in June, exports fell 5.8%yoy, the trade bala
Market volatility highlights the interconnectedness of global economies, with geopolitical tensions influencing both traditional and crypto assets.
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ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD. Earlier in the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices hurt the Euro (EUR), but later the pair became more driven by Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. She now sees EUR/USD guided by central bank expectations, yield spreads and Eurozone energy risks. Euro sensitivity returns to energy moves “At the start of the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices weighed on the euro against the US dollar. During the conflict, however, EUR/USD became less sensitive to energy prices and more sensitive to expectations for the Fed and the ECB.” “When a Memorandum of Understanding was announced, energy prices fell sharply, but the euro gained little against the US dollar because markets were focused on expectation
The post Australian Dollar remains pressured amid Trump comments appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
AUD/USD trades under pressure near 0.6920 on Wednesday, following the US Dollar (USD) holding firm amid geopolitical risk and caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to gain traction as investors moved toward the Greenback after United States (US) President Donald Trump said the interim memorandum of understanding with Iran was “over,” adding that he did not want to engage with Tehran. Trump also added to broader uncertainty after saying he had ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut off all trade with Spain, calling Madrid a “terrible partner” in NATO. Although the direct impact on AUD/USD is limited, the comments reinforced a risk-off tone across markets, weighing on growth-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie. On the China side, investors will keep a close eye on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data,
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ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that recent equity jitters and firm Oil prices have underlined the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, while markets look to the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. He argues the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish shift and Dot Plot have kept the Dollar supported, and expects US Dollar Index (DXY) to trade largely rangebound with modest upside risks in the near term. Fed minutes seen cementing hawkish stance “Equity jitters offered the dollar some support yesterday – a reminder of the greenback’s very strong safe-haven appeal despite the concentration of AI-sensitive stocks in US indices. Oil prices are also trading on the strong side after some overnight military action in Iran and the Treasury revoking the waiver that allowed Teheran to sell crude. Markets will keep monitoring the situation but have tended to fade Middle East re-escalation ri
The post Silver falls as Trump renews Iran threats, Fed Minutes eyed appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Wednesday and trades around $58.45 at the time of writing. The white metal remains under pressure after comments from US President Donald Trump revived concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, supporting the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict with Iran is now “over,” adding that he no longer wants to negotiate with Tehran. He also stated on Wednesday that the United States (US) could launch new strikes against Iran as early as tonight, saying a deal is not necessary and raising the possibility of targeting strategic infrastructure, including the country’s electricity grid, water treatment facilities and Kharg Island, Iran’s main Oil export terminal. This renewed escalation has increased concerns about disruptions to global Oil supplies, with th
The escalating US-Iran tensions risk regional instability, impacting global markets and potentially leading to significant geopolitical shifts.
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