USD/CAD Forecast: Bounces off three-week low; bearish bias remains

The post Canadian Dollar: Softer Canada jobs seen weigh against US Dollar – BBH appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes USD/CAD trading just below 1.4200 and broadly aligned with US-Canada two-year yield spreads ahead of June labor data. Haddad expects a sharp slowdown in job gains to 10k and sees scope for markets to pare Bank of Canada hike pricing, arguing this adjustment would leave USD/CAD biased higher in coming sessions. Labor data risk skewed to upside “USD/CAD is directionless just under 1.4200.” “Canada’s June labor force survey is the domestic highlight (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). The economy is expected to add +10.0k jobs in June vs. +87.8k in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 6.6% for a second straight month.” “USD/CAD is trading in line with US-Canada 2-year bond yield differentials. But there is room for Bank of Canada rate hikes bets (50bps in the next twelve months) to adjust lower, leaving

The post “The bar for a material hawkish turn is high”: ING says the Bank of Canada won’t surprise next week appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming the US Dollar in the short term, pulling the USD/CAD pair down from recent multi-month highs. This corrective move comes at a crucial juncture, as global markets look ahead to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) upcoming policy meeting. While technical indicators suggest that the Greenback’s premium over the Loonie is overextended relative to bond yields, fundamental analysts caution that domestic softness and looming trade risks will ultimately limit the Canadian Dollar’s scope for a sustained recovery. USD/CAD daily chart. Source: FXStreet. Tactically expensive premium leaves USD/CAD vulnerable to a deeper pullback Societe Generale points out that the US Dollar’s recent rally against the Canadian Dollar has become fundamentally detached from underlying fixed-income markets. After encountering a firm ceiling

The post Canadian Dollar: Firmer against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130. They view this area as potential support but warn that a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.4075 and the 50-DMA near 1.3950, framing near-term downside risks for the pair. Key support eyed near 1.4130 “USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support.” “It will be interesting to observe whether the pair can hold above this support.” “Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback.” “The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4075, followed by the 50-DMA near 1.3950.” “USD/CAD expensive

The post Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP gains ground to near 1.3430 early European session appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3430 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes underpin the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). Andy Burnham’s path to becoming the next UK prime minister looks certain after a vast majority of Labour MPs formally nominated him to be the next party leader. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that 322 of 403 Labour members of Parliament voted for Burnham at the end of the first day of the party’s leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer. Burnham is expected to formally become Prime Minister on July 20. Read more… British Pound gains traction above 1.3400 as markets bet on BoE rate hikes The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3430 during the Asian tradin

The post Canadian Dollar strengthens as receding Fed rate hike bets weigh US Dollar appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The USD/CAD pair loses momentum to near 1.4145 during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on receding expectations of a rate increase from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The minutes from the Fed’s June 16 to 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, showed concern about high inflation mounted among policymakers, and a few participants saw a case to hike the interest rates. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in ‌energy prices over the remainder of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the July meeting eased back to 24.6% from 31% in the prior session, but up from 18.2% a week ago. For the September

The post Canadian Dollar: Sentiment improves as risks fade against US Dollar – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat on Thursday but modestly firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) this week, making it a mild outperformer. They argue much bad news is already priced into CAD and that short-term USD/CAD risk reversals and improving Canadian data support a more constructive near-term view as front-end spreads stabilize. Overbought Dollar faces firm resistance “The CAD is all but flat on the day but retains a modestly firmer tone on the USD overall through the week so far, leaving it as a modest outperformer since Monday.” “The shift lower in short-term USDCAD risk reversals reflects a general sentiment shift against the USD but we also note some recent improvement in relative economic reports (reflecting slightly better than forecast, but still soft, Canadian data) which has tilted the US/Can

The post Canadian Dollar holds in range as weaker US Dollar offsets lower Oil prices appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. USD/CAD trades around 1.4170 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as weakness in the US Dollar (USD) offsets the negative impact of lower Oil prices on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure as Crude Oil prices extend their corrective pullback after the recent geopolitical-driven rally. Although tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after the United States (US) and Iran exchanged military strikes for a second consecutive day, traders appear to be unwinding part of their recent bullish Oil positions, weighing on the commodity-linked Loonie. Still, downside pressure on the Canadian currency remains limited by expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could resume tightening later this year. The central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% in June, while swap markets now price roughly a 60% ch

The post USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hovers above 1.4150 as bullish bias prevails appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. USD/CAD moves sideways after two days of losses, trading around 1.4170 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias. The USD/CAD is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds comfortably above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price is pressing against the short-term nine-period EMA, which acts as immediate resistance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 64 stays in positive territory but off extreme overbought readings, hinting at sustained upside momentum with some scope for consolidation. The USD/CAD pair may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4182, followed by the primary barrier at the nearly 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24. Further advances would expose the upper