#jan von gerich

The post Eurozone: Energy shock keeps pressure on ECB – Nordea appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jan von Gerich highlights that Eurozone inflation risks remain skewed to the upside due to a persistent energy shock linked to Middle East tensions. Even under milder energy scenarios, he stresses that supply chain disruptions, higher production costs and firm-level price adjustments are already embedded, leaving the ECB unconvinced that inflation will quickly return to target. Persistent energy shock sustains risks “All members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as being to the upside relative to the staff baseline projections, with the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East being the key source of risk.” “With the energy shock proving more persistent than had been envisaged at the time of the March and April meetings, and indirect effects starting to become increasingly visible and broad-based, the inflation outlook had deteriorated further.” “Looking ahead, it wa

The post European Central Bank: September hike prospects stay firm – Nordea appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Nordea’s Jan von Gerich argues that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to continue tightening policy, with the outlook heavily dependent on Middle East developments and energy prices. He notes that a July move is now unlikely after lower inflation and falling Oil, but sees a September rate hike as probable, in line with current market pricing. ECB path tied to energy risks “The ECB outlook still hinges to a large extent on the developments in the Middle East and in energy prices.” “While a July hike is likely to be off the table without a significant jump in energy prices, a September rate move looks much more likely.” “However, the account supported the view that even a quick end to the conflict would not automatically mean that the ECB would be done hiking rates.” “The major fall seen in energy prices on the back of hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower-than