US-Iran strikes rattle Hormuz; Polymarket puts July normalization odds at 4.5%
The post US-Iran strikes rattle Hormuz; Polymarket puts July normalization odds at 4.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 09, 2026 04:03 Early Thursday, the U.S. launched new airstrikes on Iran, and Iran fired missiles affecting Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, raising doubts about any interim deal and the status of the Hormuz ceasefire. US-Iran strikes rattle Hormuz; Polymarket puts July normalization odds at 4.5% U.S. Airstrikes on Iran Push Polymarket Odds of Strait of Hormuz Normalizing by July 31 Down to 4.5% U.S. airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s reported missile fire toward Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have sharpened concerns about security around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for commercial shipping. On Polymarket, traders have sharply reduced the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, pushing the contract’s Yes price down to 4.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 95.5% chance of “No” on Strait of Hormuz traffic returnin