British Pound feeds on bad news as the Euro slides to a one-year low

The post Euro: Energy repricing shapes outlook against US Dollar – ABN AMRO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD. Earlier in the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices hurt the Euro (EUR), but later the pair became more driven by Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. She now sees EUR/USD guided by central bank expectations, yield spreads and Eurozone energy risks. Euro sensitivity returns to energy moves “At the start of the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices weighed on the euro against the US dollar. During the conflict, however, EUR/USD became less sensitive to energy prices and more sensitive to expectations for the Fed and the ECB.” “When a Memorandum of Understanding was announced, energy prices fell sharply, but the euro gained little against the US dollar because markets were focused on expectation

The post British Pound holds firm as Hormuz shock lifts Oil, Dollar appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts modest gains during the North American session on Wednesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump’s said the deal with Iran was “over” after both countries exchanged attacks over the last couple of days. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3371, up 0.09%. GBP/USD steadies as geopolitical risk offsets Dollar strength During the last couple of days, Tehran and Washington exchanged blows after Iran hit two vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a response from the US. The US CENTCOM reported that it attacked 80 targets during the last two days. In addition to the attacks, the US reimposed sanctions on Iran’s Oil, while Trump threatened to resume the blockade in Hormuz. Energy prices jumped, with the US crude Oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), rising nearly 5% to $75.60. The US

The post British Pound: Recovery eyes 1.36 against US Dollar – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer but supported by a sharp repricing of Bank of England (BoE) tightening. Improving United Kingdom (UK)–United States (US) spreads and positive sentiment around the UK leadership transition underpin GBP, while technicians remain bullish, targeting an extension of gains toward 1.36 within a 1.3300–1.3400 near-term range. BoE repricing underpins Pound outlook “The pound is soft, down a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies in mixed overall trade. The latest resurgence in geopolitical tensions has amplified the renewed tightening in BoE expectations that we had observed over the past week or so.” “The recovery in UK-US spreads is offering fundamental support to the GBP, and compounding the sentiment-related strength observed in response to the mar

The post Euro steadies above 1.1400 as traders assess US-Iran tensions appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. EUR/USD treads water above the 1.1400 mark on Wednesday, steadying after coming under selling pressure as traders assess renewed US-Iran tensions after both sides exchanged fire overnight following attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. US President Donald Trump said the interim deal with Iran was “over,” although Reuters later reported that he did not repeat those comments during the closed NATO leaders’ meeting, citing a source familiar with the talks. Even so, risk sentiment remained fragile after Trump said the United States would “probably hit them again tonight” and added, “I don’t know if we’ll have an Iran deal.” The latest escalation has pushed Crude Oil prices higher, reviving energy-driven inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that major central banks may need to tighten monetary policy further. According to the CME FedWatch

The post Euro: Geopolitics and ECB repricing supports EUR – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) is consolidating around the low 1.14s, with mixed G10 performance as markets reassess Oil’s impact on Euro area terms of trade and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate path. They highlight a notable repricing of ECB tightening to about 35 bps by December, supporting EUR via yield spreads, while near-term EUR/USD is seen confined between 1.1380 and 1.1480. Oil risk and ECB repricing “The EUR is quietly consolidating in the low-1.14s and entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD. The EUR is also a mid-performer among the G10, in mixed overall trade with dispersion offering a break from the broad USD-driven movement that has characterized overall performance through much of this year.” “The latest resurgence in geopolitical risk presents a clear potential headwind for the EUR as we assess the ren

The post British Pound: Pound resilience faces political risks – Rabobank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the British Pound (GBP) has been a strong G10 performer this year, supported by sticky United Kingdom (UK) inflation, Bank of England (BoE) rate expectations and inbound M&A flows. However, Foley warns that excess economic capacity, high government debt and political uncertainty around Burnham’s incoming Labour government and fiscal stance could weigh on GBP, with EUR/GBP seen higher by year-end. Feel good for now “The pound is the second best performing G10 currency in the month to date after the NOK. In the year to date the pound is fourth place in the G10 performance table. The UK’s recent history of sticky inflation and the swing in short-term interest rates at the start of the Iran war to pricing in BoE rate hikes can partly explain GBP’s resilience.” “Despite this month’s better tone, we don’t see GBP as being fr

The post Euro: Political risks but downside bias – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Francesco Pesole at ING discusses Euro resilience despite French political developments, including Marine Le Pen’s 2027 bid and expectations of an RN win. He sees limited immediate impact on the Euro, keeps no political premium in EUR forecasts, and highlights a downside bias for EUR/USD, with Swedish inflation and EUR/SEK dynamics also in focus. France politics and Nordic spillovers “Marine Le Pen announced she will run in the 2027 presidential election after a court decision yesterday. We discuss the outlook for French politics, rates and FX in this note. This court decision doesn’t change much for the euro considering markets are likely to be already pricing in an RN win in April.” “Surely, there are risks that during the campaign OATs will experience pockets of stress around fiscal concerns, spilling over into the euro. But our baseline assumption is that RN will be careful not to unnerve th

The post British Pound slumps against US Dollar as risky assets turn fragile appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The British Pound (GBP) is down 0.13% to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as renewed geopolitical risks have diminished the appeal of riskier assets. At press time, S&P 500 futures are down almost 1% to near 7,430, demonstrating a risk-off market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 101.15 after recovering early losses. Risks of the restart of the Middle East war have forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet. In the European trade, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that the “memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran is over”, adding that he doesn’t want to deal with them. This came as Tehran continues to prove its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical c