Canadian Dollar: Jobs and BoC caution shape outlook – ING

The post India: Inflation risks stay skewed higher – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song project India’s consumer inflation to edge up to 4.2% year-on-year in June, while wholesale inflation moderates to 9%. They highlight that lower Brent prices should ease wholesale costs, but persistent retail fuel prices, firmer food inflation and sticky core pressures keep overall inflation risks tilted to the upside over the coming months. Wholesale easing, consumer prices stay sticky “We expect India’s consumer price inflation to edge slightly higher to 4.2% year-on-year in June, while wholesale price inflation is likely to moderate to 9%.” “Softer Brent crude prices should pull wholesale prices lower, but persistent retail fuel costs, gradually firming food inflation and sticky core pressures point to a mild uptick in consumer inflation.” “The gradual pass-through of wholesale prices to retail prices, meanwhile, is expected to support underlyin

The post Canadian Dollar gains after June jobs report tops forecasts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.4160 after falling to a more than two-week low of 1.4136. Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 18.2K jobs in June, exceeding market expectations of 10K. However, the reading was sharply lower than the 87.8K increase recorded in May. The Unemployment Rate eased to 6.5% from 6.6%. As labor market conditions remain uneven, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with policymakers expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the coming months while monitoring inflation risks, particularly those stemming from higher energy prices. Energy-driven inflation risks are back in focus after Oil prices rose earlier this week following renewed hostilities in the Middle E

The post Canadian Dollar: Labour data seen softening – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. TD Macro Research expects the Canadian labour market to soften in June, with employment unchanged versus market expectations for a 10k gain after May’s 87.8k surge. They see the unemployment rate steady at 6.6% and wage growth for permanent workers rising modestly to 3.6% year-on-year, only partly reversing May’s sharp deceleration. Jobs surge seen mean-reverting “We look for the Canadian labour market to return to a softer footing in June with employment forecast to remain unchanged (market: +10k) after the creation of 87.8k jobs last month as the unemployment rate holds at 6.6% with a stable participation rate.” “Monthly business surveys have been mixed over June, with a pullback in small business hiring intentions contrasting with the more upbeat performance in the S&P PMIs.” “However, mean reversion will provide the more powerful driver for the softer print with last month’s pe

Canada's job growth and declining unemployment may delay rate cuts, impacting currency dynamics and potentially benefiting crypto markets. The post Canada adds 18,200 jobs in June as unemployment rate dips, setting stage for Bank of Canada rate decision appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Canadian Dollar: Softer Canada jobs seen weigh against US Dollar – BBH appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes USD/CAD trading just below 1.4200 and broadly aligned with US-Canada two-year yield spreads ahead of June labor data. Haddad expects a sharp slowdown in job gains to 10k and sees scope for markets to pare Bank of Canada hike pricing, arguing this adjustment would leave USD/CAD biased higher in coming sessions. Labor data risk skewed to upside “USD/CAD is directionless just under 1.4200.” “Canada’s June labor force survey is the domestic highlight (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). The economy is expected to add +10.0k jobs in June vs. +87.8k in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 6.6% for a second straight month.” “USD/CAD is trading in line with US-Canada 2-year bond yield differentials. But there is room for Bank of Canada rate hikes bets (50bps in the next twelve months) to adjust lower, leaving

The post “The bar for a material hawkish turn is high”: ING says the Bank of Canada won’t surprise next week appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming the US Dollar in the short term, pulling the USD/CAD pair down from recent multi-month highs. This corrective move comes at a crucial juncture, as global markets look ahead to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) upcoming policy meeting. While technical indicators suggest that the Greenback’s premium over the Loonie is overextended relative to bond yields, fundamental analysts caution that domestic softness and looming trade risks will ultimately limit the Canadian Dollar’s scope for a sustained recovery. USD/CAD daily chart. Source: FXStreet. Tactically expensive premium leaves USD/CAD vulnerable to a deeper pullback Societe Generale points out that the US Dollar’s recent rally against the Canadian Dollar has become fundamentally detached from underlying fixed-income markets. After encountering a firm ceiling

The post US Dollar: Geopolitics faded as markets eye rates – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the US Dollar (USD) has been broadly unchanged despite renewed Middle East tensions, as Oil has retraced and risk sentiment improved. He highlights that fading geopolitical risk keeps focus on front-end rate differentials, which have moved against the Dollar in some cases. ING sees upside risks for the Dollar but expects only limited DXY reaction if Oil stays contained. Dollar sidelined by rate focus “Markets are taking a decisively optimistic stance on fresh US-Iran tensions. Multiple reports indicate traffic in Hormuz has dropped to almost zero in the past couple of days, and we have seen effectively no intent of de-escalation from either party.” “The 2-year USD swap rate has erased roughly half of the 10bp jump after the re-escalation – 35bp of tightening is currently priced in for December.” “The dollar is seeing no benefits from this situation. Fading

The post Canadian Dollar: Firmer against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130. They view this area as potential support but warn that a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.4075 and the 50-DMA near 1.3950, framing near-term downside risks for the pair. Key support eyed near 1.4130 “USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support.” “It will be interesting to observe whether the pair can hold above this support.” “Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback.” “The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4075, followed by the 50-DMA near 1.3950.” “USD/CAD expensive