The post Canadian Dollar gains after June jobs report tops forecasts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.4160 after falling to a more than two-week low of 1.4136. Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 18.2K jobs in June, exceeding market expectations of 10K. However, the reading was sharply lower than the 87.8K increase recorded in May. The Unemployment Rate eased to 6.5% from 6.6%. As labor market conditions remain uneven, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with policymakers expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the coming months while monitoring inflation risks, particularly those stemming from higher energy prices. Energy-driven inflation risks are back in focus after Oil prices rose earlier this week following renewed hostilities in the Middle E
The post Canadian Dollar: Labour data seen softening – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TD Macro Research expects the Canadian labour market to soften in June, with employment unchanged versus market expectations for a 10k gain after May’s 87.8k surge. They see the unemployment rate steady at 6.6% and wage growth for permanent workers rising modestly to 3.6% year-on-year, only partly reversing May’s sharp deceleration. Jobs surge seen mean-reverting “We look for the Canadian labour market to return to a softer footing in June with employment forecast to remain unchanged (market: +10k) after the creation of 87.8k jobs last month as the unemployment rate holds at 6.6% with a stable participation rate.” “Monthly business surveys have been mixed over June, with a pullback in small business hiring intentions contrasting with the more upbeat performance in the S&P PMIs.” “However, mean reversion will provide the more powerful driver for the softer print with last month’s pe
The post Canadian Dollar: Softer Canada jobs seen weigh against US Dollar – BBH appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes USD/CAD trading just below 1.4200 and broadly aligned with US-Canada two-year yield spreads ahead of June labor data. Haddad expects a sharp slowdown in job gains to 10k and sees scope for markets to pare Bank of Canada hike pricing, arguing this adjustment would leave USD/CAD biased higher in coming sessions. Labor data risk skewed to upside “USD/CAD is directionless just under 1.4200.” “Canada’s June labor force survey is the domestic highlight (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). The economy is expected to add +10.0k jobs in June vs. +87.8k in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 6.6% for a second straight month.” “USD/CAD is trading in line with US-Canada 2-year bond yield differentials. But there is room for Bank of Canada rate hikes bets (50bps in the next twelve months) to adjust lower, leaving
The post “The bar for a material hawkish turn is high”: ING says the Bank of Canada won’t surprise next week appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming the US Dollar in the short term, pulling the USD/CAD pair down from recent multi-month highs. This corrective move comes at a crucial juncture, as global markets look ahead to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) upcoming policy meeting. While technical indicators suggest that the Greenback’s premium over the Loonie is overextended relative to bond yields, fundamental analysts caution that domestic softness and looming trade risks will ultimately limit the Canadian Dollar’s scope for a sustained recovery. USD/CAD daily chart. Source: FXStreet. Tactically expensive premium leaves USD/CAD vulnerable to a deeper pullback Societe Generale points out that the US Dollar’s recent rally against the Canadian Dollar has become fundamentally detached from underlying fixed-income markets. After encountering a firm ceiling
The post Canadian Dollar: Firmer against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130. They view this area as potential support but warn that a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.4075 and the 50-DMA near 1.3950, framing near-term downside risks for the pair. Key support eyed near 1.4130 “USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support.” “It will be interesting to observe whether the pair can hold above this support.” “Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback.” “The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4075, followed by the 50-DMA near 1.3950.” “USD/CAD expensive
The post Canadian Dollar: Jobs and BoC caution shape outlook – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that Canada’s June jobs report is expected to show a sharp slowdown in hiring and a pickup in wage growth. He argues the bar for a hawkish shift by the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains high, with benign inflation and USMCA-related risks limiting hike prospects. ING sees CAD supported near term but does not expect USD/CAD below 1.40 in coming months. Data and policy temper Loonie upside “Canada releases jobs data for June today. Expectations are for a marked slowdown in hiring to 10k after May’s big 88k, with unemployment staying at 6.6%. The focus will be on permanent employees’ hourly wages, which are expected to increase from 3.2% to 3.6%.” “We think the bar for a material hawkish turn by the Bank of Canada is high, and we don’t expect surprises at next week’s meeting. Unless oil rallies back to April-May levels, the inflation outlook remains too benig
The post USD/CAD Forecast: Bounces off three-week low; bearish bias remains appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The USD/CAD pair stages a modest intraday recovery from the 1.4135 area, or a three-week low touched this Friday, and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early European session. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4160 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders now look forward to Canadian monthly employment details for a fresh impetus. In the meantime, a weaker tone around Crude Oil prices undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, bounces off over a one-week low amid prospects of at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 and concerns about a fresh escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This, in turn, assists the USD/CAD pair in attracting some buyers at lower levels. From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance below the 100-period Simple Moving
The post [Canada unemployment expected to remain steady in June appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Markets are anticipating a fairly stable report when Statistics Canada releases its Labour Force Survey on Friday. While the Net Change in Employment is predicted to rise by 10K in June, adding to the 87.8K gain in May, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to stay at 6.6%. Despite the report’s tone, the Bank of Canada (BoC) should keep the bar pretty high for changing its policy direction. Indeed, the central bank is expected to keep its policy unchanged at its July 15 meeting, following five consecutive ‘on hold’ decisions since it last lowered rates in October 2025. The June meeting reinforced the view that the BoC is firmly in wait-and-see mode. That said, policymakers seem willing to look through temporary shocks as long as underlying price pressures remain contained, even as they continue to monitor inflation risks, especially from higher energy prices. With the economy still showing
The post Canadian Dollar strengthens as receding Fed rate hike bets weigh US Dollar appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The USD/CAD pair loses momentum to near 1.4145 during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on receding expectations of a rate increase from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The minutes from the Fed’s June 16 to 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, showed concern about high inflation mounted among policymakers, and a few participants saw a case to hike the interest rates. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in energy prices over the remainder of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the July meeting eased back to 24.6% from 31% in the prior session, but up from 18.2% a week ago. For the September
