The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the
The post British Pound hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 as US Dollar pulls back appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, to hit fresh three–week highs right above 1.3400. The Greenback’s pullback following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes and rumours about the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations are keeping the pair buoyed. The US and Iran traded attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but risk aversion remains contained so far, with markets hopeful that the negotiations will continue. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Thursday that Tehran “wants to make a deal so badly,” which suggests that the peace talks might resume soon. Beyond that, the US Dollar remains on its back foot since the release of the minutes of June’s Fed meeting. The committee maintained its will to fight inflation, but showed a divergence on the monetary policy
The post Fed Minutes Setup: Yields vs S&P 500 Record Valuations appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Stocks are sitting near the top of the mountain. The S&P 500 pushed to fresh closing highs in early June as AI optimism juiced returns, which is great if you were long. But it also leaves a simple, slightly uncomfortable question ahead of the Fed minutes release: what if yields keep creeping up right as valuations look full? If the 10-year hangs in the mid 4s and the minutes read hawkish, multiples can get tight in a hurry. That’s the setup. This piece walks through how yields pressure valuations, what to watch in the minutes, and a clean playbook for managing risk without guessing tops.
Aspect
What to Know
Fed minutes tone
June meeting minutes showed mounting inflation worries and some argued for a hike, with several seeing slightly higher rates by end 2026 MarketScreener.
10-year Treasury yield
The benchmark drifted into the mid 4% range in early July, with
The post Gold Price Forecast: Recoveries likely be capped as 20-day EMA slopes lower appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.8% higher to near $4,110 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) is down despite a slight improvement in expectations that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.95 even after recovering over half of its early losses. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates at least once this year have increased to 83.4% from almost 78% recorded a week back. Hawkish Fed prospects have increased as oil prices have bounced back strongly due to renewed Middle East tensions. Technically, higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold. Investors worry
The post Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD picks up above $59.00 as US Dollar softens appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming losses on Thursday, and hitting session highs just above $59.00 after bouncing from $57.22 lows on Wednesday. US Dollar’s pullback has given some oxygen to the battered precious metals, although Silver’s broader trend remains bearish, after having lost more than $3 so far this week. The White metal is drawing some support from a weaker US Dollar following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes. The central bank maintained its commitment to fight inflationary pressures, but a split market committee has left investors pondering the timing of the next interest rate hikes. Furthermore, Iran and the US have exchanged attacks for the second consecutive day, but comments from US President Donald Trump affirming that Iran “wants to make a deal so badly” suggest that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table. Technical
Fed minutes cited rising inflation risks and possible 2026 hikes, the 10-year sat near 4.47%, and the S&P 500 traded at 20.1x forward P/E. Why yields could bite.
The post RWA news: A DEX trader holds $1 million EUR/USD bullish bet for 400 Days appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The term “HODLing,” crypto slang for buying and holding an asset for a long time, has historically been associated almost exclusively with bitcoin BTC$62,946.60 and ether (ETH). One trader has now applied the same long-term approach to perpetual futures tied to the euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) listed on the decentralized exchange (DEX) Ostium, which is powered by Nasdaq data. A trader has held a long position in EUR/USD worth $1,139,490 for 400 days, Ostrium said on Tuesday. The bullish bet, expecting the euro to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, was opened around early June 2025. EUR/USD traded above 1.14 as of this writing, largely unchanged from where it was in June last year, but it did rise as high as 1.2082 in January this year. Onchain FX trading offered by platforms such as Ostium, Gains Network, Synthetix, GMX, and others remains a very tiny fraction of the gl
The post Euro advances against Canadian Dollar on strong German trade, weak oil appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
EUR/CAD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.6210 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger following stronger-than-expected trade data from Germany. Germany’s Trade Surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, marking the largest surplus since February. This comfortably beat market forecasts of €14.8 billion and followed an upwardly revised €14.7 billion surplus in April. This expansion was driven by an unexpected 0.9% month-on-month surge in German exports, which hit a three-and-a-half-year high and defied expectations of a 0.3% decline. Conversely, imports dropped by 2.5% to a three-month low, missing the estimate for a 0.1% growth and reversing the previous month’s 1.1% gain. The EUR/CAD cross found support as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakened in tandem with falling oil prices. West Texas Intermediate
The post Euro: ECB hawkish repricing with bond selloff – Deutsche Bank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Deutsche Bank Research’s Early Morning Reid notes that European assets are sensitive to the renewed energy shock. Market pricing for ECB hikes by December rose sharply, implying a chance of three hikes this year after June’s move. Sovereign bonds sold off, with 10-year Bund yields posting their biggest daily jump since May and French OATs reaching their highest level since 2009. ECB expectations and yield surge “Meanwhile at the ECB, there was an even bigger hawkish repricing, with the amount of hikes by December up +12.7bps on the day to 39.5bps.” “And given the ECB already hiked in June, that pricing implies a growing chance that they might end up hiking 3 times by the end of the year.” “Just like when the conflict began, yesterday’s re-escalation caused significant damage to sovereign bonds, particularly in Europe given the region’s exposure to the energy shock.” “So 10yr bund
