Euro advances against Canadian Dollar on strong German trade, weak oil

The post US Dollar: Fed minutes flag supply-driven inflation risks – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable. Some participants saw a case for a June hike but backed holding rates, while most signaled willingness to pursue further policy firming if supply-side shocks, including Oil and tariffs, push inflation higher. Fed minutes stress hawkish supply risks “The June FOMC minutes showed participants concerned about rising inflation risks. “A few” participants saw the case for hiking in June, but still supported keeping rates on hold.” “The minutes also noted that the labor market remained stable, and that inflation risks were rising due to AI, tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and higher oil prices. However, in a hawkish development, “most” participants saw the case for “policy fi

The post US Dollar: Constructive outlook as Oil risks build – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note renewed Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices are lifting the US Dollar (USD) and global bond yields. They expect the USD to appreciate by 2–3% in 2H26 versus lower-yielding currencies like the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF), with a larger rally contingent on a sharper Oil spike or US overheating. Geopolitics and energy underpin Dollar “We continue to expect the USD to appreciate by 2-3% in 2H26 and remain constructive on the currency against lower-yielding peers, including the EUR, JPY and CHF.” “A more significant move of over 5% remains a tail risk and would likely require either oil prices rising above USD100/bbl or renewed signs of US economic overheating, such as falling unemployment and firmer medium-term inflation expectations, rather than a soft-landing outcome.” “At around USD78/bbl, Brent crude remai

The collapse of US-Iran talks heightens geopolitical tensions, impacting global markets by driving oil prices up and causing crypto volatility. The post US-Iran clashes sink interim deal, send oil surging and crypto sliding appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the

The post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro wavers around 1.1430 with the bearish trend intact appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency. Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing

The post Oil: Rising geopolitical risks and Russian diesel ban – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil has extended its rally as renewed US-Iran tensions threaten the fragile ceasefire and disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz. ICE Brent has moved above $78/bbl, while Russia’s ban on diesel exports until end-July intensifies middle distillate supply concerns. ING highlights tighter US product inventories and expects stronger demand for US barrels. Brent supported by supply disruptions “ICE Brent settled 5.2% higher yesterday at a little over $78/bbl, with further upside expected today following additional US strikes against Iran in response to its earlier attacks on several vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz.” “Key for the oil outlook is whether the US and Iran are able to quickly de-escalate this latest rise in tensions.” “The market will be watching whether these crossings rebound in the coming days — or whether

The post Bitcoin vs. gold: Why the BTC/XAU ratio could be key in July appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. July has officially kicked off, bringing the hedge narrative back into focus. At the macro level, volatility is picking up again. On the 8th of July, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed, sending Bitcoin back toward $62k and wiping out $300 million in long positions shortly after the news broke. At the same time, oil jumped over 4%, reclaiming the $75/barrel level for the first time since losing it in mid-June. While U.S. President Donald Trump later said Iran is open to another round of negotiations, the damage to risk sentiment has already been done. On Polymarket, the odds of oil trading above $80/barrel this month have surged from just 13% to 65%, reflecting growing expectations of further geopolitical escalation and tighter energy markets. Source: Polymarket Notably, the shift is already showing up across macro data.  According to FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike at the

The post Euro: Hawkish Fed keeps gains contained against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States. Fed reaction function supports Dollar “EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly.” “In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices.” “The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked