US Dollar: Fed minutes flag supply-driven inflation risks – TD Securities

The post Fed: Divergent inflation paths shape rate outlook – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale’s Jan Groen notes that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes confirmed a hawkish hold, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showing an even split between members favoring unchanged or lower rates and those preferring hikes. The Fed sees inflation as too high and the labor market as durably stable, but is divided on how long elevated inflation will persist, which drives differing policy rate views. Committee split on inflation persistence “We had a hawkish hold at the June FOMC meeting with the June update of the SEP indicating an even split between Committee members that wanted to keep rates on hold or cut vs. members who wanted to raise rates.” “Today’s release of the minutes of that meeting did not contain any major surprises and it confirmed the hawkish undertone from the post-meeting communications.” “Where there was disagreem

The post New Zealand Dollar: Rate support constrained by Oil drag – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Christopher Wong highlights that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened after a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike, but higher Oil prices are capping gains. With the RBNZ starting a tightening cycle and growth expected to rebound in 2H26, Wong sees AUD/NZD nearing a peak, though a sustained decline needs stronger New Zealand growth and a more favourable energy backdrop. Hawkish RBNZ meets energy headwinds “The NZD strengthened after a hawkish RBNZ rate hike, though gains were capped by renewed terms-of-trade headwinds from higher oil prices. The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.50%, delivering its first hike since May 2023. Forward guidance was hawkish but data-dependent, with the central bank noting that further rate increases may be needed to return inflation to target.” “Domestic data point to a rebound in GDP growth in 2H26 as the dr

The post Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. British Pound hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 as US Dollar pulls back  The British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, to hit fresh three–week highs right above 1.3400. The Greenback’s pullback following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes and rumours about the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations are keeping the pair buoyed. The US and Iran traded attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but risk aversion remains contained so far, with markets hopeful that the negotiations will continue. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Thursday that Tehran “wants to make a deal so badly,” which suggests that the peace talks might resume soon. Read more… GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds a constructive bullish tone above 1.3400 as UK political risk eases The GBP/USD pair

Prolonged inflation control efforts may sustain pressure on risk assets, affecting investment strategies and economic growth projections. The post Federal Reserve’s Williams emphasizes restoring inflation to 2% target, signaling prolonged pressure on risk assets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Aluminium: Price outlook shifts lower as market rebalances – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. TD Securities strategists have downgraded its Aluminium price outlook as supply recovers and demand softens. They now expect Aluminium to average $3,378/t in 2026 and $3,281/t in 2027, projecting smaller deficits and a move toward market balance while still ruling out a major rout. Prices seen lower but supported “Speedier Middle East smelter ramp-ups, increased Indonesian supply, robust Chinese semi-fabricated exports, and weaker demand have prompted TD Commodity Strategy to downgrade our aluminium price outlook. As the market moves closer to supply-demand balance next year, we expect prices to average $3,378/t in 2026 and $3,281/t in 2027, down 5.0% and 9.8% from the previous forecast.” “We now project deficits of 1.2 million tonnes and 234 thousand tonnes in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This stands in sharp contrast to the earlier consensus view of a 2.5-3.0 milli

The escalating US-Iran conflict could destabilize global markets, complicate sanctions enforcement, and intensify crypto's geopolitical role. The post US-Iran conflict escalates with strikes and drone attacks in Persian Gulf, rattling oil and crypto markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Hormuz Risk Is Back: Why The Market Is Wrong On Energy appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire in Hormuz creates severe friction for oil and LNG routes, exposing corporate risk far beyond the price of crude. getty After a 23-day temporary ceasefire collapsed, U.S. Central Command said it struck more than 170 Iranian targets across two waves following attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. That same day, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control revoked Iran’s temporary oil-sales authorization and replaced it with a wind-down license. Brent moved back above $76 recently, depending on the market snapshot used. That sequence looks like another oil shock. The larger signal is more awkward for companies: a ceasefire-linked route assumption and a sanctions permission both failed the same test. The oil market can move quickly. Trust in a shipping corridor moves more slowly. The next six months of Hormuz risk will b

The post Euro: Sideways trading outlook against US Dollar – Rabobank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how Euro sentiment has cooled after optimism around Germany’s debt brake, with political risks and structural headwinds weighing on the currency. The bank notes EUR/USD is already priced for another ECB hike and expects sideways trading near current levels in the coming months, with only a modest upward bias further out. Euro sentiment cools after 2025 surge “While higher short-term interest rates are currency supportive, the market is already fully priced for another ECB rate hike this year, suggesting that one more policy move is unlikely to offer much support for the EUR. On balance, we expect EUR/USD to trade sideways close to current levels on a 1-to-3-month view.” “Irrespective of this, it is worth noting that the EUR was the second best performing G10 currency in Q2 2025 after the safe haven CHF. This highlights the part the