The post US Dollar: Constructive outlook as Oil risks build – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note renewed Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices are lifting the US Dollar (USD) and global bond yields. They expect the USD to appreciate by 2–3% in 2H26 versus lower-yielding currencies like the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF), with a larger rally contingent on a sharper Oil spike or US overheating. Geopolitics and energy underpin Dollar “We continue to expect the USD to appreciate by 2-3% in 2H26 and remain constructive on the currency against lower-yielding peers, including the EUR, JPY and CHF.” “A more significant move of over 5% remains a tail risk and would likely require either oil prices rising above USD100/bbl or renewed signs of US economic overheating, such as falling unemployment and firmer medium-term inflation expectations, rather than a soft-landing outcome.” “At around USD78/bbl, Brent crude remai
The post Mexican Peso: Gains seen limited against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister observes that markets expect substantial tightening by Banxico over the next year, but he questions whether conditions justify 75 basis points of hikes. With Mexican inflation near 3.5–4% and the real economy having contracted on weak investment and higher imports, he sees little need for higher rates and therefore limited upside for the Mexican Peso (MXN) versus the US Dollar (USD). Banxico tightening bets questioned “A look at interest rate expectations in North and South America reveals that the Mexican central bank is expected to implement some of the most significant tightening measures over the next 12 months. This expectation has certainly been bolstered by Banxico’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of June, having cut them twice by 25 basis points each since the start of the war in Iran despite higher global energy pri
Geopolitical tensions and AI risks could prompt a long-term shift away from USD assets, impacting global capital flows and reserve strategies.
The post Deutsche Bank warns geopolitics and AI are increasing risks to the US dollar appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Escalating US-Iran tensions risk broader Middle East conflict, impacting global markets and complicating monetary policy amid rising oil prices.
The post US military strikes 90 targets in Iran as crypto markets slide into risk-off mode appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post British Pound hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 as US Dollar pulls back appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, to hit fresh three–week highs right above 1.3400. The Greenback’s pullback following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes and rumours about the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations are keeping the pair buoyed. The US and Iran traded attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but risk aversion remains contained so far, with markets hopeful that the negotiations will continue. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Thursday that Tehran “wants to make a deal so badly,” which suggests that the peace talks might resume soon. Beyond that, the US Dollar remains on its back foot since the release of the minutes of June’s Fed meeting. The committee maintained its will to fight inflation, but showed a divergence on the monetary policy
The post Gold Price Forecast: Recoveries likely be capped as 20-day EMA slopes lower appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.8% higher to near $4,110 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) is down despite a slight improvement in expectations that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.95 even after recovering over half of its early losses. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates at least once this year have increased to 83.4% from almost 78% recorded a week back. Hawkish Fed prospects have increased as oil prices have bounced back strongly due to renewed Middle East tensions. Technically, higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold. Investors worry
The post Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD picks up above $59.00 as US Dollar softens appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming losses on Thursday, and hitting session highs just above $59.00 after bouncing from $57.22 lows on Wednesday. US Dollar’s pullback has given some oxygen to the battered precious metals, although Silver’s broader trend remains bearish, after having lost more than $3 so far this week. The White metal is drawing some support from a weaker US Dollar following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes. The central bank maintained its commitment to fight inflationary pressures, but a split market committee has left investors pondering the timing of the next interest rate hikes. Furthermore, Iran and the US have exchanged attacks for the second consecutive day, but comments from US President Donald Trump affirming that Iran “wants to make a deal so badly” suggest that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table. Technical
The post Euro advances against Canadian Dollar on strong German trade, weak oil appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
EUR/CAD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.6210 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger following stronger-than-expected trade data from Germany. Germany’s Trade Surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, marking the largest surplus since February. This comfortably beat market forecasts of €14.8 billion and followed an upwardly revised €14.7 billion surplus in April. This expansion was driven by an unexpected 0.9% month-on-month surge in German exports, which hit a three-and-a-half-year high and defied expectations of a 0.3% decline. Conversely, imports dropped by 2.5% to a three-month low, missing the estimate for a 0.1% growth and reversing the previous month’s 1.1% gain. The EUR/CAD cross found support as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakened in tandem with falling oil prices. West Texas Intermediate
The post US Dollar Index: Fed hawks supported by energy spike – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that higher Oil prices and Gulf tensions have driven a bigger reaction in rates than in FX, with Brent near $80 supporting Fed hawks. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to stay firm versus low-yielders, while carry trades in Emerging Markets (EM) have been unwound. Turner sees US Dollar Index (DXY) around 101.00 with scope back toward 101.50. Fed scenarios and DXY support “Dominating global markets yesterday was the seeming breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran and a more serious exchange of fire. That has extended overnight, with the US military striking infrastructure targets in northern Iraq – the first strike on infrastructure since early April. Brent briefly touched $80/bl and we saw some large moves at the short end of interest curves.” “In addition, last night saw the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting. Some had feared that Fed
