The post US Dollar Index: Fed hawks supported by energy spike – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that higher Oil prices and Gulf tensions have driven a bigger reaction in rates than in FX, with Brent near $80 supporting Fed hawks. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to stay firm versus low-yielders, while carry trades in Emerging Markets (EM) have been unwound. Turner sees US Dollar Index (DXY) around 101.00 with scope back toward 101.50. Fed scenarios and DXY support “Dominating global markets yesterday was the seeming breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran and a more serious exchange of fire. That has extended overnight, with the US military striking infrastructure targets in northern Iraq – the first strike on infrastructure since early April. Brent briefly touched $80/bl and we saw some large moves at the short end of interest curves.” “In addition, last night saw the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting. Some had feared that Fed
The post US Dollar: Fed minutes flag supply-driven inflation risks – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable. Some participants saw a case for a June hike but backed holding rates, while most signaled willingness to pursue further policy firming if supply-side shocks, including Oil and tariffs, push inflation higher. Fed minutes stress hawkish supply risks “The June FOMC minutes showed participants concerned about rising inflation risks. “A few” participants saw the case for hiking in June, but still supported keeping rates on hold.” “The minutes also noted that the labor market remained stable, and that inflation risks were rising due to AI, tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and higher oil prices. However, in a hawkish development, “most” participants saw the case for “policy fi
The post Mexican Peso: Gains seen limited against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister observes that markets expect substantial tightening by Banxico over the next year, but he questions whether conditions justify 75 basis points of hikes. With Mexican inflation near 3.5–4% and the real economy having contracted on weak investment and higher imports, he sees little need for higher rates and therefore limited upside for the Mexican Peso (MXN) versus the US Dollar (USD). Banxico tightening bets questioned “A look at interest rate expectations in North and South America reveals that the Mexican central bank is expected to implement some of the most significant tightening measures over the next 12 months. This expectation has certainly been bolstered by Banxico’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of June, having cut them twice by 25 basis points each since the start of the war in Iran despite higher global energy pri
The post CEE FX: Forint longs face geopolitical test – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland kept a neutral stance, with elevated uncertainty from Middle East tensions and CPI projections above expectations. US–Iran headlines triggered a sell-off in CEE rates and FX, with EUR/HUF jumping 1.2%. Taborsky sees EUR/HUF around 360 as attractive for new Forint longs if tensions prove temporary. NBP steady as EUR/HUF spikes “The meeting of the National Bank of Poland did not bring many surprises. The statement is broadly neutral and almost unchanged from June. The MPC acknowledges lower oil prices, weaker growth in Poland’s key trading partners, and a recent decline in inflation.” “Yesterday, the CEE region was hit hard by US-Iran headlines, and we saw a sell-off across rates and FX. In the Czech Republic, the market added half a rate hike to pricing for a total of one and a half hikes now. In Poland, expectations have retur
Geopolitical tensions and AI risks could prompt a long-term shift away from USD assets, impacting global capital flows and reserve strategies.
The post Deutsche Bank warns geopolitics and AI are increasing risks to the US dollar appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Escalating US-Iran tensions risk broader Middle East conflict, impacting global markets and complicating monetary policy amid rising oil prices.
The post US military strikes 90 targets in Iran as crypto markets slide into risk-off mode appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post British Pound hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 as US Dollar pulls back appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, to hit fresh three–week highs right above 1.3400. The Greenback’s pullback following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes and rumours about the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations are keeping the pair buoyed. The US and Iran traded attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but risk aversion remains contained so far, with markets hopeful that the negotiations will continue. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Thursday that Tehran “wants to make a deal so badly,” which suggests that the peace talks might resume soon. Beyond that, the US Dollar remains on its back foot since the release of the minutes of June’s Fed meeting. The committee maintained its will to fight inflation, but showed a divergence on the monetary policy
The post Fed Minutes Setup: Yields vs S&P 500 Record Valuations appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Stocks are sitting near the top of the mountain. The S&P 500 pushed to fresh closing highs in early June as AI optimism juiced returns, which is great if you were long. But it also leaves a simple, slightly uncomfortable question ahead of the Fed minutes release: what if yields keep creeping up right as valuations look full? If the 10-year hangs in the mid 4s and the minutes read hawkish, multiples can get tight in a hurry. That’s the setup. This piece walks through how yields pressure valuations, what to watch in the minutes, and a clean playbook for managing risk without guessing tops.
Aspect
What to Know
Fed minutes tone
June meeting minutes showed mounting inflation worries and some argued for a hike, with several seeing slightly higher rates by end 2026 MarketScreener.
10-year Treasury yield
The benchmark drifted into the mid 4% range in early July, with
The post Gold Price Forecast: Recoveries likely be capped as 20-day EMA slopes lower appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.8% higher to near $4,110 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) is down despite a slight improvement in expectations that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.95 even after recovering over half of its early losses. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates at least once this year have increased to 83.4% from almost 78% recorded a week back. Hawkish Fed prospects have increased as oil prices have bounced back strongly due to renewed Middle East tensions. Technically, higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold. Investors worry
