CEE FX: Forint longs face geopolitical test – ING

The post Brent: Supply recovery meets weak China demand – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Warren Patterson notes that Oil prices fell after the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding allowed Persian Gulf supply to recover faster than expected, while demand lagged. He now forecasts Brent at $80/bbl in 3Q26, $74/bbl in 4Q26 and $70/bbl in 2027, but warns that renewed US–Iran tensions and uncertain Chinese buying could push Brent toward $100/bbl. Brent outlook shaped by Gulf risks “The oil market came under significant pressure following the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran on 17 June. The deal allowed oil flows to recover at a much quicker pace than expected, which led to a weakening in the physical oil market. The return of Persian Gulf supply coincided with the continued release of oil from strategic reserves, along with demand recovering at a relatively slower pace than supply.” “We had originally anticipated that the normalisation of oil flows from the

The post US Dollar Index: Slips despite yield support – DBS appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped from 101.28 to 101 late in the US session, even as the US Treasury 2Y yield rose and crude Oil stayed supported by Middle East tensions. Futures pricing now shows September Fed hike odds above 50%, but FOMC Minutes suggest a divided committee and limited forward guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh. Middle East stress and Fed repricing “Although the futures market returned the odds of a September Fed hike above 50%, the FOMC Minutes did not convey the same urgency for one by the divided Fed participants.” “The DXY Index fell late in the US session from 101.28 to 101, decoupling from the higher US Treasury 2Y yield, despite its strong correlation with crude oil prices after President Donald Trump declared that the interim ceasefire agreement with Iran was over.” “However, Trump clarified that the US blockade applied s

The post Ethereum price holds $1,750 as Middle East tensions and $1,800 wall cap recovery appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ethereum price has remained pinned near $1,750 after renewed Middle East tensions triggered a risk-off mood across financial markets and sellers once again defended the $1,800 resistance zone. Summary Ethereum price remains stuck near $1,750 as Middle East tensions keep risk appetite subdued across crypto markets. Repeated rejection at $1,800 and heavy liquidation clusters continue to block a sustained ETH breakout. A break below $1,750 could expose $1,700, while reclaiming $1,800 may trigger a short squeeze toward $2,000. According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price traded around $1,756 on Wednesday after failing to sustain multiple attempts above $1,800 during the past week. The latest rejection followed U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military targets after Iran reportedly fired on civilian shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, sending investors toward

Ethereum price has remained pinned near $1,750 after renewed Middle East tensions triggered a risk-off mood across financial markets and sellers once again defended the $1,800 resistance zone. According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price traded around $1,756 on…

The post US Dollar Index: Fed hawks supported by energy spike – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Chris Turner notes that higher Oil prices and Gulf tensions have driven a bigger reaction in rates than in FX, with Brent near $80 supporting Fed hawks. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to stay firm versus low-yielders, while carry trades in Emerging Markets (EM) have been unwound. Turner sees US Dollar Index (DXY) around 101.00 with scope back toward 101.50. Fed scenarios and DXY support “Dominating global markets yesterday was the seeming breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran and a more serious exchange of fire. That has extended overnight, with the US military striking infrastructure targets in northern Iraq – the first strike on infrastructure since early April. Brent briefly touched $80/bl and we saw some large moves at the short end of interest curves.” “In addition, last night saw the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting. Some had feared that Fed

The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the

The post Oil: Rising geopolitical risks and Russian diesel ban – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil has extended its rally as renewed US-Iran tensions threaten the fragile ceasefire and disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz. ICE Brent has moved above $78/bbl, while Russia’s ban on diesel exports until end-July intensifies middle distillate supply concerns. ING highlights tighter US product inventories and expects stronger demand for US barrels. Brent supported by supply disruptions “ICE Brent settled 5.2% higher yesterday at a little over $78/bbl, with further upside expected today following additional US strikes against Iran in response to its earlier attacks on several vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz.” “Key for the oil outlook is whether the US and Iran are able to quickly de-escalate this latest rise in tensions.” “The market will be watching whether these crossings rebound in the coming days — or whether

The post China’s CPI inflation falls to 1.0% YoY in June, vs 1.1% expected appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 1.0% in June from a year ago after arriving at a rise of 1.2% in May, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Thursday. The market consensus was for 1.1% in the reported period. Chinese CPI inflation arrived at -0.3% MoM in June versus a decline of 0.1% prior, softer than the expectation of a 0.2% fall. China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY in June, following a 3.9% increase in May. The data came in line with the market consensus. Market reaction to China’s CPI, PPI data The China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) edges slightly lower following the China’s CPI and PPI data. At the press time, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.01% on the day to trade at 0.6927. Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (R