The post Brent: Supply recovery meets weak China demand – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Warren Patterson notes that Oil prices fell after the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding allowed Persian Gulf supply to recover faster than expected, while demand lagged. He now forecasts Brent at $80/bbl in 3Q26, $74/bbl in 4Q26 and $70/bbl in 2027, but warns that renewed US–Iran tensions and uncertain Chinese buying could push Brent toward $100/bbl. Brent outlook shaped by Gulf risks “The oil market came under significant pressure following the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran on 17 June. The deal allowed oil flows to recover at a much quicker pace than expected, which led to a weakening in the physical oil market. The return of Persian Gulf supply coincided with the continued release of oil from strategic reserves, along with demand recovering at a relatively slower pace than supply.” “We had originally anticipated that the normalisation of oil flows from the
The post Fed: Hawkish minutes keep upside rate risks – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that the Federal Reserve’s June minutes confirmed a more hawkish stance despite an unchanged policy rate. They highlight that nine officials pencilled in higher rates by year-end and that most see further policy firming as likely if inflation stays elevated due to AI-driven demand, high energy prices and tariffs, though ING’s base case expects moderation. June minutes reinforce hawkish Fed stance “This more upbeat take on the economy and the labour market was also reflected in the more hawkish stance of the Fed, which was just confirmed by the minutes of the June meeting.” “While voting unanimously to keep rates on hold, that meeting saw nine Fed officials pencilling in higher rates by the end of this year.” “Most officials agreed that “some policy firming would likely be warranted” in a scenario in which inflation remained elevated
The post CEE FX: Forint longs face geopolitical test – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland kept a neutral stance, with elevated uncertainty from Middle East tensions and CPI projections above expectations. US–Iran headlines triggered a sell-off in CEE rates and FX, with EUR/HUF jumping 1.2%. Taborsky sees EUR/HUF around 360 as attractive for new Forint longs if tensions prove temporary. NBP steady as EUR/HUF spikes “The meeting of the National Bank of Poland did not bring many surprises. The statement is broadly neutral and almost unchanged from June. The MPC acknowledges lower oil prices, weaker growth in Poland’s key trading partners, and a recent decline in inflation.” “Yesterday, the CEE region was hit hard by US-Iran headlines, and we saw a sell-off across rates and FX. In the Czech Republic, the market added half a rate hike to pricing for a total of one and a half hikes now. In Poland, expectations have retur
Escalating US-Iran tensions risk broader Middle East conflict, impacting global markets and complicating monetary policy amid rising oil prices.
The post US military strikes 90 targets in Iran as crypto markets slide into risk-off mode appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post WTI slips below $74 after rally as US‑Iran tensions support prices appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades lower on Thursday and hovers around $73.10 at the time of writing, down 1.95% on the day as investors take profits following two consecutive days of strong gains. Despite the pullback, downside pressure remains limited as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin Oil prices. Tensions between the United States (US) and Iran escalated after a new wave of US strikes targeted Iranian positions. In response, Tehran launched attacks against several US military facilities in the Gulf and threatened further retaliation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding with Iran aimed at easing the conflict was no longer in effect, reviving concerns about a renewed regional escalation. Markets remain focused on developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping lane thro
The post CryptoQuant Explain How Surge In Oil Prices Hurted Bitcoin, Historically appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The post CryptoQuant Explain How Surge In Oil Prices Hurted Bitcoin, Historically appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Brent crude oil has jumped more than 10% in the past two days, while Bitcoin has fallen nearly 6%. This happened just when the U.S-Iran shoot missile on each other, raising tensions at the Strait of Hormuz. Now, CryptoQuant warns that if oil prices keep rising, Bitcoin could face more downside pressure. CryptoQuant Explains the … Source: https://coinpedia.org/news/cryptoquant-explain-how-surge-in-oil-prices-hurted-bitcoin-historically/
The post US Dollar Index: Fed hawks supported by energy spike – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that higher Oil prices and Gulf tensions have driven a bigger reaction in rates than in FX, with Brent near $80 supporting Fed hawks. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to stay firm versus low-yielders, while carry trades in Emerging Markets (EM) have been unwound. Turner sees US Dollar Index (DXY) around 101.00 with scope back toward 101.50. Fed scenarios and DXY support “Dominating global markets yesterday was the seeming breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran and a more serious exchange of fire. That has extended overnight, with the US military striking infrastructure targets in northern Iraq – the first strike on infrastructure since early April. Brent briefly touched $80/bl and we saw some large moves at the short end of interest curves.” “In addition, last night saw the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting. Some had feared that Fed
The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the
The post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro wavers around 1.1430 with the bearish trend intact appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency. Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing
