The post Euro: Hawkish Fed keeps gains contained against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States. Fed reaction function supports Dollar “EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly.” “In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices.” “The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked
The post RWA news: A DEX trader holds $1 million EUR/USD bullish bet for 400 Days appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The term “HODLing,” crypto slang for buying and holding an asset for a long time, has historically been associated almost exclusively with bitcoin BTC$62,946.60 and ether (ETH). One trader has now applied the same long-term approach to perpetual futures tied to the euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) listed on the decentralized exchange (DEX) Ostium, which is powered by Nasdaq data. A trader has held a long position in EUR/USD worth $1,139,490 for 400 days, Ostrium said on Tuesday. The bullish bet, expecting the euro to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, was opened around early June 2025. EUR/USD traded above 1.14 as of this writing, largely unchanged from where it was in June last year, but it did rise as high as 1.2082 in January this year. Onchain FX trading offered by platforms such as Ostium, Gains Network, Synthetix, GMX, and others remains a very tiny fraction of the gl
The post Polymarket drops Iran regime-fall odds to 8.5% amid ceasefire strain appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 09, 2026 08:04
Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are testing a fragile Iran–US ceasefire extension amid renewed strikes and missile/drone exchanges.
Polymarket drops Iran regime-fall odds to 8.5% amid ceasefire strain Polymarket Reprices “Iranian Regime Falls Before 2027” After Hormuz Ceasefire-Test Headlines On Polymarket, the contract “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?” is priced at 8.5% Yes (91.5% No) on $21.49M matched, after sliding from 10.5%. The move frames how traders are translating fresh Iran macro-and-security headlines into a lower near-term collapse probability. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 91.5% chance the regime does not fall before 2027 (Yes 8.5%). After the catalyst, the Yes price fell 2.0 points (10.5% to 8.5%) while the market remains heavily skewed to “No.” The contract resolves on 2026-12-31,
The post Bitcoin Holds Strong Amid Renewed Middle East Hostilities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitcoin has remained relatively strong as tensions erupted between the US and Iran over the last couple of days. Can the $BTC price hang on to support around the $62K level, or if attacks from both sides escalate, could this be what sends Bitcoin spiralling into a bear market bottom? $BTC price bounces back to $63K resistance Source: TradingView As expected, the $BTC price came back down, given its slightly overbought nature of the last day or two. Also, the price found good support on the top of the falling wedge, at horizontal support, and at the bull market trendline. After bouncing, the price has currently come up against the $63K horizontal resistance which is preventing further gains up to now. There will possibly be more sideways price action to come, unless of course events in the Middle East drag the U.S. stock market down, which in turn would likely take the $BTC price dow
The post Euro advances against Canadian Dollar on strong German trade, weak oil appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
EUR/CAD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.6210 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger following stronger-than-expected trade data from Germany. Germany’s Trade Surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, marking the largest surplus since February. This comfortably beat market forecasts of €14.8 billion and followed an upwardly revised €14.7 billion surplus in April. This expansion was driven by an unexpected 0.9% month-on-month surge in German exports, which hit a three-and-a-half-year high and defied expectations of a 0.3% decline. Conversely, imports dropped by 2.5% to a three-month low, missing the estimate for a 0.1% growth and reversing the previous month’s 1.1% gain. The EUR/CAD cross found support as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakened in tandem with falling oil prices. West Texas Intermediate
The post US Dollar Index: Fed hawks supported by energy spike – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that higher Oil prices and Gulf tensions have driven a bigger reaction in rates than in FX, with Brent near $80 supporting Fed hawks. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to stay firm versus low-yielders, while carry trades in Emerging Markets (EM) have been unwound. Turner sees US Dollar Index (DXY) around 101.00 with scope back toward 101.50. Fed scenarios and DXY support “Dominating global markets yesterday was the seeming breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran and a more serious exchange of fire. That has extended overnight, with the US military striking infrastructure targets in northern Iraq – the first strike on infrastructure since early April. Brent briefly touched $80/bl and we saw some large moves at the short end of interest curves.” “In addition, last night saw the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting. Some had feared that Fed
The post US Dollar: Constructive outlook as Oil risks build – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note renewed Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices are lifting the US Dollar (USD) and global bond yields. They expect the USD to appreciate by 2–3% in 2H26 versus lower-yielding currencies like the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF), with a larger rally contingent on a sharper Oil spike or US overheating. Geopolitics and energy underpin Dollar “We continue to expect the USD to appreciate by 2-3% in 2H26 and remain constructive on the currency against lower-yielding peers, including the EUR, JPY and CHF.” “A more significant move of over 5% remains a tail risk and would likely require either oil prices rising above USD100/bbl or renewed signs of US economic overheating, such as falling unemployment and firmer medium-term inflation expectations, rather than a soft-landing outcome.” “At around USD78/bbl, Brent crude remai
The post Why US-Iran frictions are not hurting the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar this time? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) keeps trading sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, showing a surprising resilience to the escalating tensions in Iran. The pair has been steady above 0.6900 in the face of the rising tensions in Iran, with bearish momentum fading, as investors remain hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table. US and Iran exchanged attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but failed to do any significant harm to the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar. Investors keep seeing these skirmishes as manoeuvres to gain leverage in the peace negotiations, with the idea of an all-out war discarded for now. Fed minutes fail to support the USD Beyond that, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first monetary policy meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh’s leadership showed a government board split on the near
Bitcoin has remained relatively strong as tensions erupted between the US and Iran over the last couple of days. Can the $BTC price hang on to support around the $62K level, or if attacks from both sides escalate, could this be what sends Bitcoin spiralling into a bear market bottom?
