Euro retraces previous gains as Eurozone data paves the way for an ECB pause

The post European Central Bank: One more hike base case as data soften – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June minutes justified the latest rate hike while keeping flexibility on future moves. Since then, Oil prices have fallen sharply and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside. Their base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, though President Lagarde’s comments in Sintra raise the risk that June was a one‑and‑done move. ECB weighs final hike versus pause “The ECB’s June meeting minutes reinforced the Governing Council’s view that the June rate hike was fully justified based on the information available at the time, while maintaining flexibility on future policy moves.” “Since the 11 June meeting, oil prices have fallen sharply and June CPI data surprised on the downside.” “Our base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, although E

The post WTI price holds near $72 as US-Iran talks offset Hormuz supply risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades around $72 at the time of writing on Friday, up 0.42% on the day, but remains in a consolidation phase after reaching a more than two-week high earlier this week. Investors are assessing mixed signals from the Middle East, balancing ongoing military tensions against renewed diplomatic efforts. Market sentiment improved slightly after a US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran remain ongoing despite US President Donald Trump’s comments that the memorandum of understanding with Tehran was no longer in effect. Reuters also reported that Qatari negotiators are in Iran to meet with Iranian officials in an effort to de-escalate tensions and create conditions for broader negotiations to continue, in coordination with the United States (US). According to a source cited by Reuters, the talks are focused on implementing the US-Ira

The post Indian Rupee: Stabilisation but recovery hurdles against US Dollar – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong observe that the Indian Rupee (INR) faced depreciation pressure as Oil and geopolitics resurfaced, pushing USD/INR towards a one‑month high. He notes that some pressure has eased with Oil off its highs and RBI-linked Dollar sales helping limit losses. Near term, USD/INR should stay relatively contained, though a clean recovery likely needs lower Oil prices. USD/INR pressure easing with flows and RBI support “INR came under depreciation pressure as oil/geopolitics moved back into focus. Higher crude prices can pose downside pressure for INR, and USD/INR’s move towards one-month high yesterday suggests that market is again testing INR’s oil sensitivity.” “That said, some of the pressure has eased with oil prices back off highs and the INR is not without support. RBI-linked USD sales appear to have helped limit recent l

The post Euro: Range-bound rebound faces key resistance against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes EUR/USD has rebounded after forming an interim low near 1.1325 and moved back into its prior range, signalling limited follow-through on the earlier breakdown. The bank stresses that resistance at 1.1475/1.1500 must be cleared to extend the bounce, while a drop below 1.1390 would risk resuming the broader downtrend. Bounce capped by 1.1500 barrier “EUR/USD has staged a modest rebound after carving out an interim low around 1.1325. The pair has re-integrated within previous range, indicating a lack of follow-through after the recent breakdown.” “However, clear signals of a large up move are not yet visible. The recent pivot high at 1.1475/1.1500 is the first layer of resistance. Overcoming this will be crucial for signalling an extension of the bounce.” “Conversely, there could be a risk of a continuation of the downtren

The post Canadian Dollar: Softer Canada jobs seen weigh against US Dollar – BBH appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes USD/CAD trading just below 1.4200 and broadly aligned with US-Canada two-year yield spreads ahead of June labor data. Haddad expects a sharp slowdown in job gains to 10k and sees scope for markets to pare Bank of Canada hike pricing, arguing this adjustment would leave USD/CAD biased higher in coming sessions. Labor data risk skewed to upside “USD/CAD is directionless just under 1.4200.” “Canada’s June labor force survey is the domestic highlight (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). The economy is expected to add +10.0k jobs in June vs. +87.8k in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 6.6% for a second straight month.” “USD/CAD is trading in line with US-Canada 2-year bond yield differentials. But there is room for Bank of Canada rate hikes bets (50bps in the next twelve months) to adjust lower, leaving

The post Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD wavers around $4,100 with the bearish trend intact appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Gold (XAU/USD) nurses minor losses with price action contained within Thursday’s trading range, around the $4,100 level, set for 1.6% weekly depreciation. Precious metals struggled this week as the resumption of hostilities in Iran boosted Oil prices, pressuring central banks to hike interest rates. Markets are looking for direction on Friday amid a tense calm, and rumours that mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. Axios cited a US official affirming on Friday that the US is still committed to finding a resolution and that technical talks to reach a nuclear deal continue. The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six peers, has bounced from levels near three-week highs amid a cautious market mood, and is drawing closer to the 101.00 level, which keeps Gold upside attempts limi

The post Euro slips as soft Eurozone inflation, Japan pension shift lift Yen appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. EUR/JPY trades around 184.95 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from renewed demand following the government’s announcement of a potential shift toward greater domestic investment. At the same time, confirmed signs of easing inflation in Germany and France continue to weigh on the Euro (EUR). Final data released on Friday confirmed that inflationary pressures continue to moderate across the Eurozone. In Germany, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% YoY in June, down from 2.7% in May, while monthly prices declined by 0.2%. In France, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also slowed to 2% YoY from 2.8% in May, with prices falling 0.3% on a monthly basis. These figures reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting as policymakers assess d

The post Gold: Tentative stabilisation on oil relief – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that Gold has rebounded as Oil prices eased, reducing inflation and Fed tightening concerns, while a softer US Dollar also supported the move. However, ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, suggesting the recovery is more relief-driven than a decisive return of investor demand. Near term, Gold could trade with a better tone if Oil and yields stay contained. Relief-driven recovery in Gold “Gold. Tentative stabilisation on oil relief. Gold rebounded as oil prices eased from their recent spike, taking some pressure off inflation expectations, yields and Fed tightening concerns. A softer USD also helped the recovery, after the recent selloff across the precious metals complex.” “But ETF flows have yet to confirm a broader investor rebuild. Bloomberg data show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though ho