Indian Rupee: Stabilisation but recovery hurdles against US Dollar – OCBC

The post European Central Bank: One more hike base case as data soften – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June minutes justified the latest rate hike while keeping flexibility on future moves. Since then, Oil prices have fallen sharply and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside. Their base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, though President Lagarde’s comments in Sintra raise the risk that June was a one‑and‑done move. ECB weighs final hike versus pause “The ECB’s June meeting minutes reinforced the Governing Council’s view that the June rate hike was fully justified based on the information available at the time, while maintaining flexibility on future policy moves.” “Since the 11 June meeting, oil prices have fallen sharply and June CPI data surprised on the downside.” “Our base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, although E

The post WTI price holds near $72 as US-Iran talks offset Hormuz supply risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades around $72 at the time of writing on Friday, up 0.42% on the day, but remains in a consolidation phase after reaching a more than two-week high earlier this week. Investors are assessing mixed signals from the Middle East, balancing ongoing military tensions against renewed diplomatic efforts. Market sentiment improved slightly after a US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran remain ongoing despite US President Donald Trump’s comments that the memorandum of understanding with Tehran was no longer in effect. Reuters also reported that Qatari negotiators are in Iran to meet with Iranian officials in an effort to de-escalate tensions and create conditions for broader negotiations to continue, in coordination with the United States (US). According to a source cited by Reuters, the talks are focused on implementing the US-Ira

The post New Zealand Dollar: Constructive outlook faces yield constraints – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed after stronger manufacturing data and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) commentary reinforced expectations for further tightening. They remain constructive on NZD but highlights that upside from yield support may be constrained near term. Markets are pricing the RBNZ as the most hawkish G10 central bank, with around 80bp of additional tightening by mid-2027. NZD strength meets yield headwinds “NZD outperformed after stronger-than-expected manufacturing data and hawkish RBNZ commentary strengthened expectations for further policy tightening. New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI rose to 59.7 in June, its highest level since July 2021.” “We remain constructive on NZD. However, the scope for NZ yields to move materially higher in the near term may be limited until the

The post Euro retraces previous gains as Eurozone data paves the way for an ECB pause appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro (EUR) has given away most of the daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, returning to the 1.1430 area from session highs at 1.1475, which leaves the pair practically flat on the daily chart. Soft economic data from Eurozone countries, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty and higher Oil prices, is posing a significant weight on the Euro rallies. In Germany, June’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed previous estimations, showing that inflation slowed down to a 2.4% year-over-year (y-o-y) rate from 2.7% in May and from the April peak of 2.9%. Monthly inflation contracted 0.2%, also in line with preliminary estimations, and following a 0.1% contraction in May. At a later time, INSEE revealed that France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also in line with the preliminary estimations. Yearly inflation eased to a 2% rate in June

The post Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD wavers around $4,100 with the bearish trend intact appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Gold (XAU/USD) nurses minor losses with price action contained within Thursday’s trading range, around the $4,100 level, set for 1.6% weekly depreciation. Precious metals struggled this week as the resumption of hostilities in Iran boosted Oil prices, pressuring central banks to hike interest rates. Markets are looking for direction on Friday amid a tense calm, and rumours that mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. Axios cited a US official affirming on Friday that the US is still committed to finding a resolution and that technical talks to reach a nuclear deal continue. The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six peers, has bounced from levels near three-week highs amid a cautious market mood, and is drawing closer to the 101.00 level, which keeps Gold upside attempts limi

The post RBI Ban Talk Returns: What It Means for Altcoin Access appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. India’s crypto debate just snapped back into focus. If you’re wondering whether altcoin access will get tougher, the short answer is yes, and the reasons are more structural than headline-driven. This piece breaks down what the Reserve Bank of India’s latest stance means day to day. We’ll get into banking rails, stablecoin premiums, enforcement heat, and the real choices Indian users and builders face over the next few months. Editor’s note: Over Q1 and Q2 this year I watched INR stablecoin quotes slip away from spot FX on multiple P2P channels. After the ED headlines, a couple of OTC desks I speak with widened spreads and raised size minimums for a bit. Local exchanges also got more conservative around listings and payment options. None of this screams panic, but it does say the path of least resistance is narrowing. My own take is simple: the policy overhang is now the main driver o

The post Gold: Tentative stabilisation on oil relief – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that Gold has rebounded as Oil prices eased, reducing inflation and Fed tightening concerns, while a softer US Dollar also supported the move. However, ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, suggesting the recovery is more relief-driven than a decisive return of investor demand. Near term, Gold could trade with a better tone if Oil and yields stay contained. Relief-driven recovery in Gold “Gold. Tentative stabilisation on oil relief. Gold rebounded as oil prices eased from their recent spike, taking some pressure off inflation expectations, yields and Fed tightening concerns. A softer USD also helped the recovery, after the recent selloff across the precious metals complex.” “But ETF flows have yet to confirm a broader investor rebuild. Bloomberg data show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though ho

The post US Dollar: Geopolitics faded as markets eye rates – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the US Dollar (USD) has been broadly unchanged despite renewed Middle East tensions, as Oil has retraced and risk sentiment improved. He highlights that fading geopolitical risk keeps focus on front-end rate differentials, which have moved against the Dollar in some cases. ING sees upside risks for the Dollar but expects only limited DXY reaction if Oil stays contained. Dollar sidelined by rate focus “Markets are taking a decisively optimistic stance on fresh US-Iran tensions. Multiple reports indicate traffic in Hormuz has dropped to almost zero in the past couple of days, and we have seen effectively no intent of de-escalation from either party.” “The 2-year USD swap rate has erased roughly half of the 10bp jump after the re-escalation – 35bp of tightening is currently priced in for December.” “The dollar is seeing no benefits from this situation. Fading