New Zealand Dollar: Constructive outlook faces yield constraints – OCBC

The post NZD/USD Price Forecast: Recovery extends, but overhead SMAs cap upside appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. NZD/USD remains on the front foot on Friday and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday and signaled that further policy tightening may be needed, boosting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.5771 after hitting an intraday high of 0.5794, its highest level since June 18. From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has been recovering after bottoming at 0.5626 in late June, its lowest level since November 2025. The latest leg higher pushed NZD/USD above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5717, reinforcing the bullish near-term outlook. Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above the neutral 50 threshold after recovering from near-oversold territory. Meanwhile,

The post European Central Bank: One more hike base case as data soften – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June minutes justified the latest rate hike while keeping flexibility on future moves. Since then, Oil prices have fallen sharply and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside. Their base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, though President Lagarde’s comments in Sintra raise the risk that June was a one‑and‑done move. ECB weighs final hike versus pause “The ECB’s June meeting minutes reinforced the Governing Council’s view that the June rate hike was fully justified based on the information available at the time, while maintaining flexibility on future policy moves.” “Since the 11 June meeting, oil prices have fallen sharply and June CPI data surprised on the downside.” “Our base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, although E

The post Indian Rupee: Stabilisation but recovery hurdles against US Dollar – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong observe that the Indian Rupee (INR) faced depreciation pressure as Oil and geopolitics resurfaced, pushing USD/INR towards a one‑month high. He notes that some pressure has eased with Oil off its highs and RBI-linked Dollar sales helping limit losses. Near term, USD/INR should stay relatively contained, though a clean recovery likely needs lower Oil prices. USD/INR pressure easing with flows and RBI support “INR came under depreciation pressure as oil/geopolitics moved back into focus. Higher crude prices can pose downside pressure for INR, and USD/INR’s move towards one-month high yesterday suggests that market is again testing INR’s oil sensitivity.” “That said, some of the pressure has eased with oil prices back off highs and the INR is not without support. RBI-linked USD sales appear to have helped limit recent l

The post Gold: Tentative stabilisation on oil relief – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that Gold has rebounded as Oil prices eased, reducing inflation and Fed tightening concerns, while a softer US Dollar also supported the move. However, ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, suggesting the recovery is more relief-driven than a decisive return of investor demand. Near term, Gold could trade with a better tone if Oil and yields stay contained. Relief-driven recovery in Gold “Gold. Tentative stabilisation on oil relief. Gold rebounded as oil prices eased from their recent spike, taking some pressure off inflation expectations, yields and Fed tightening concerns. A softer USD also helped the recovery, after the recent selloff across the precious metals complex.” “But ETF flows have yet to confirm a broader investor rebuild. Bloomberg data show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though ho

The post New Zealand Dollar eases from three-week highs near 0.5800 as the US Dollar bounces up appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is giving away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading at the 0.5775 area after hitting fresh three-week highs at 0.5794 earlier on the day. The pair, however, is on track for a 1% weekly appreciation, boosted by a hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) earlier this week. The US Dollar trims losses in a calm Friday European trading session as investors ponder rumours about diplomatic efforts by mediators to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table. Rival countries halted their hostilities on Friday after a series of tit-for-tat attacks earlier on the week, although the key Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed, which is keeping investors’ appetite for risk subdued. Earlier on the week, the RBNZ hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.5% and hinted at further mone

The post NZD/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 0.5750, but remains below key technical resistance appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5775 during the early European session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gathers strength to its strongest level in three weeks against the US Dollar (USD) on a hawkish rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). On Wednesday, the RBNZ raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% and signaled the potential for more hikes this year. RBNZ govorner Anna Breman said that the geopolitical environment is still highly uncertain, but the domestic economy has shown a lot of resilience in the past few months despite the fuel shock. Traders are fully pricing two additional, quarter-point rate hikes from the New Zealand central bank through December, according to Bloomberg. That’s up from pricing a 36% chance the day before RBNZ’s meeting, the data showed. Technical A

The post New Zealand Dollar extends three-day rally vs USD on hawkish RBNZ appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The NZD/USD pair gains strong follow-through positive traction for the third straight day and rallies to an over three-week top during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5775-0.5780 region, up nearly 0.40% for the day, and remain on track to register strong gains for the second week in a row amid a combination of supporting factors. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be underpinned by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish outlook, which, along with a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. As was widely expected, the RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% following the conclusion of the June monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank also indicated that some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required to curb inflationary pr

The post Chinese Yuan: Fixing guidance fades, path less anchored – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC’s Christopher Wong observes that Renminbi (RMB) appreciation guidance is waning, with CNH-CNY fixing gaps narrowing and daily adjustments moderating. Policymakers appear to be shifting toward RMB stability rather than further appreciation. As a result, USD/CNH may become more driven by the broader Dollar, yield differentials and China growth sentiment, leaving downside less anchored. Stability focus shifts USD/CNH drivers “The RMB appreciation impulse appears to show tentative signs of losing some official reinforcement. The CNH-CNY fixing gap has narrowed, while the pace of daily fixing adjustment has moderated.” “Recent fixes have also been less RMB-supportive versus market expectations (Bloomberg proxy), suggesting that the policymakers may be shifting back toward RMB stability management rather than guiding for further appreciation.” “If fixing guidance continues to fad