The post New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ but kiwi seen vulnerable – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5%, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gaining slightly versus US Dollar (USD). RBNZ’s tone was more hawkish than expected, addressing structural inflation risks, and Commerzbank still looks for one more hike. However, they see market pricing of three additional hikes as excessive, expecting kiwi weakness once expectations are pared back. Market overpricing future OCR hikes “As we expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate (OCR) this morning to 2.5%. The kiwi reacted positively to this move and gained slightly against the USD after having fallen significantly in recent weeks. In its statement, however, the central bank’s tone was, on the whole, perhaps a bit more hawkish than we would have expected.” “We, too, had anticipated a c
The post Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027. Commerzbank sees this shift eroding PLN’s carry and supporting underperformance versus CZK. Rate-hike narrative replaced by easing talk “Headline CPI slowed to 2.5%y/y in June, weaker than consensus; more importantly, the month-on-month price change turned negative and, after seasonal-adjustment and smoothing, worked out to near-zero. In other words, the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting impulse; disinflationary forces in food and energy have re-asserted themselves.” “As we commented earlier, FRA contracts had been pricing in possible hikes later in 2026 only a month ago –
The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen as moderate tightening – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny reports that the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after the RBNZ raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, the first increase since May 2023. He notes OIS had largely priced the move and more hikes, but MUFG expects only two additional increases by March 2027. Communication is viewed as consistent with moderate tightening, with fragile domestic conditions limiting follow‑through NZD gains. RBNZ decision and NZD reaction “The only notable move for the US dollar this morning has been weaker versus the New Zealand dollar which was in response to the decision of the RBNZ to raise the key policy rate by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike since May 2023. The OIS market yesterday had 18bps priced for today and 85bps over the coming twelve months.” “We expected this move, but have only two further hikes priced by March 2027, slightly less than implied by the OIS curv
The post Czech Koruna: CNB hawkish bias supports CZK – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes Czech headline inflation fell to 1.5% year-on-year, below Czech National Bank (CNB) forecasts, with goods and energy prices soft but services still elevated. CNB officials stress core inflation remains high and view the latest print as transitory, keeping a hawkish bias. Markets may still price one more 25bp hike in 2026, with Czech Koruna (CZK) expected to outperform Polish Zloty (PLN) in coming months. Soft CPI unlikely to derail CNB stance “June’s Czech CPI flash release showed headline inflation easing to 1.5%y/y from 2.1%y/y, clearly softer than both market expectations (1.8%y/y) and the Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) own forecast (2.1%y/y). The price level fell by 0.3%m/m on raw basis.” “The seasonally‑adjusted and smoothed month‑on‑month rate of change is now near‑zero, as prices continue to reverse from the earlier Iran war energy spike. Goods p
The post USD/JPY Price Forecast: Dollar remains capped below 162.40 resistance area appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The US Dollar (USD) appreciates against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, fuelled by the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East and dovish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials. The Greenback, however, is struggling to break last week’s highs at 162.40 so far. A new round of US strikes on Iran, in retaliation for alleged attacks from Tehran on vessels closing Hormuz earlier this week, hurt risk appetite on Wednesday. and provided some support to the safe-haven US Dollar, The Yen, however, is suffering from weakness of its own, as BoJ monetary committee member Toichiro Asada, the dovish dissenter at June’s monetary policy meeting, said that he needs to see signs of demand-driven inflation before supporting interest rate hikes, Technical Analysis: 162.40 is the last barrier before 40-year highs USD/JPY trades at 162.26, mai
The proposal highlights the tension between maintaining Bitcoin's fixed supply cap and ensuring long-term network security through miner incentives.
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The post Can NZD/USD build on hawkish RBNZ-led gains beyond 0.5715 confluence? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first rate hike in three years and reclaims the 0.5700 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices stick to intraday gains in the wake of the central bank’s hawkish outlook, saying that further rate increases appear likely at the coming meetings. Moreover, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action backs the case for a further appreciating move for the currency pair as the market focus shifts to the release of the FOMC Minutes, due later today. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently placed near the 0.5715 confluence hurdle – comprising the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June fall. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set
The post Gold edges higher as cautious USD bulls eye Fed and Iran risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak after falling to sub-$4,100 levels, or the weekly trough touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on a modest uptick as bulls turn cautious ahead of the release of the June FOMC meeting Minutes. This is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the bullion. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from levels just above the $4,200 mark, or a two-week high set on Monday, has run its course. The US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the already fragile ceasefire. Traders were quick to price in the geopolitical risk premium amid concerns about a further escalation
