The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen as moderate tightening – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny reports that the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after the RBNZ raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, the first increase since May 2023. He notes OIS had largely priced the move and more hikes, but MUFG expects only two additional increases by March 2027. Communication is viewed as consistent with moderate tightening, with fragile domestic conditions limiting follow‑through NZD gains. RBNZ decision and NZD reaction “The only notable move for the US dollar this morning has been weaker versus the New Zealand dollar which was in response to the decision of the RBNZ to raise the key policy rate by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike since May 2023. The OIS market yesterday had 18bps priced for today and 85bps over the coming twelve months.” “We expected this move, but have only two further hikes priced by March 2027, slightly less than implied by the OIS curv
The post US Dollar: Fed pricing questioned as disinflation looms – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that June FOMC minutes may already be stale as weaker labour data and lower energy prices challenge the Fed’s hawkish dot plot. He sees OIS pricing as too aggressive, with rate hikes over-priced and a rate cut by March 2027 more likely than another hike. Dollar strength, he says, has been driven by rate spreads and leveraged long positioning, but this may reverse if disinflation resumes. Fed expectations and Dollar positioning “The FX market is increasingly being driven once again by rates spreads with our rolling correlations indicating that and the Fed rate hike pricing has been the key driver of renewed US dollar buying. A lot of this pricing appears driven by the perception that Fed Chair Warsh has been hawkish. But apart from reaffirming the pursuit of achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation goal there is limited evidence to point to of Warsh being par
The post Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027. Commerzbank sees this shift eroding PLN’s carry and supporting underperformance versus CZK. Rate-hike narrative replaced by easing talk “Headline CPI slowed to 2.5%y/y in June, weaker than consensus; more importantly, the month-on-month price change turned negative and, after seasonal-adjustment and smoothing, worked out to near-zero. In other words, the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting impulse; disinflationary forces in food and energy have re-asserted themselves.” “As we commented earlier, FRA contracts had been pricing in possible hikes later in 2026 only a month ago –
The post New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ but kiwi seen vulnerable – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5%, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gaining slightly versus US Dollar (USD). RBNZ’s tone was more hawkish than expected, addressing structural inflation risks, and Commerzbank still looks for one more hike. However, they see market pricing of three additional hikes as excessive, expecting kiwi weakness once expectations are pared back. Market overpricing future OCR hikes “As we expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate (OCR) this morning to 2.5%. The kiwi reacted positively to this move and gained slightly against the USD after having fallen significantly in recent weeks. In its statement, however, the central bank’s tone was, on the whole, perhaps a bit more hawkish than we would have expected.” “We, too, had anticipated a c
The post Can NZD/USD build on hawkish RBNZ-led gains beyond 0.5715 confluence? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first rate hike in three years and reclaims the 0.5700 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices stick to intraday gains in the wake of the central bank’s hawkish outlook, saying that further rate increases appear likely at the coming meetings. Moreover, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action backs the case for a further appreciating move for the currency pair as the market focus shifts to the release of the FOMC Minutes, due later today. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently placed near the 0.5715 confluence hurdle – comprising the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June fall. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set
The post AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish remarks from RBA’s Hunter lift Australian Dollar appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.23% higher to near 0.6943 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the door open for further monetary policy tightening, if needed, to bring inflation back to the central bank’s target. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% 0.03% 0.15% -0.02% -0.21% -0.50% 0.03% EUR 0.03% 0.05% 0.17% -0.00% -0.18% -0.49% 0.05% GBP -0.03% -0.05% 0.13% -0.03% -0.25% -0.52% -0.03% JPY -0.15% -0.17% -0.13% -0.18% -0.34% -0.65% -0.15% CAD 0.0
The post New Zealand Dollar advances as RBNZ hike weighs on AUD/NZD appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
AUD/NZD declines after three days of gains, trading around 1.2170 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross falls nearly 0.25% as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains ground following the release of the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The RBNZ raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its June policy meeting, matching widespread market expectations. According to the central bank’s Monetary Policy Review, further reductions in monetary stimulus will likely be necessary to steer inflation back to its 2% target midpoint as economic activity strengthens. The RBNZ noted that future OCR adjustments will remain strictly data-dependent, guided by incoming economic indicators, price-setting behavior, and medium-term inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highligh
The post RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Ted Hisokawa
Jul 08, 2026 02:45
On July 8, 2026, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, reinforcing that tightening cycles aren’t universally over.
RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5% RBNZ Raises Rates to 2.50%: Polymarket Keeps “Fed Rate Hike in 2026” Near a Coin Flip at 49.5% Yes New Zealand’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move that kept global rate-setter watchers focused on the persistence of tightening cycles. On Polymarket, odds on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate hike at some point in 2026 were priced at 49.5% at the latest update, with the market marginally favoring “No” at 50.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 49.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, with “No” leading at 50.5%. Traders kept the contract near a coin flip as attention st
The post New Zealand Dollar retakes 0.5700 vs USD after RBNZ rate hike appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers in reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) anticipated interest rate hike and reclaims the 0.5700 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak, though the upside potential seems limited amid geopolitical uncertainties. As was widely expected, the RBNZ decided to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% following the conclusion of the June monetary policy meeting. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for further insight if this is a one-off move rather than the start of further tightening. Hence, the focus will be on the post-meeting press conference, where comments from RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman will influence the NZD and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair. In the meantime, renewed US-Ir
