CFTC notice sets 90-day reviews while a Polymarket affiliate files for FCM, NFA, and swap firm status. Margin on event contracts could reshape liquidity.
The post Polymarket odds hold: 56.5% on Sept Fed no-change after AI task force appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang
Jul 11, 2026 08:17
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named leaders of five outside-led task forces at the central bank, including an AI group led by Marc Andreessen, economist Charles I. Jones, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
Polymarket odds hold: 56.5% on Sept Fed no-change after AI task force Polymarket Holds “No Change” at 56.5% After Fed AI Task-Force Headline, Keeping September 2026 Rate Path Centered on the On Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in September?” ladder, traders are currently pricing “No change” at 56.5% (flat on the last update) on $2,260,133 in volume. The pricing sits against a fresh Fed-AI task-force headline, but the market lens is the full strike-by-strike distribution into the Sep. 16 resolution. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading outcome is “No change” at 56.5% implied probability. After the AI task-force announcement, the contract stayed
The post Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 rise to 15.5% on $40M appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 11, 2026 08:11
On July 10, 2026, an analysis said the U.S. is pivoting from direct pressure on Iran to a hybrid, multilayered attrition strategy built around coalitions and peripheral reshaping.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 rise to 15.5% on $40M Polymarket Reprices “U.S. Invade Iran Before 2027?” After Hybrid Pressure-Strategy Catalyst Polymarket traders pushed the “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” contract up to 15.5% (from 11.5%) on $40.32M volume, even as “No” still leads at 84.5%. The repricing follows a fresh analysis describing a more layered U.S. pressure strategy toward Iran, and the move shows up clearly in the contract’s recent reversal signal and short-term odds swings. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 15.5% chance of “Yes” and an 84.5% chance of “No” on a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A new
The post CFTC Chairman Urges Immediate Senate Passage of Clarity Act for Crypto Certainty appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
CFTC Chairman Urges Immediate Senate Passage of Clarity Act for Crypto Certainty – The Daily Hodl
No Result View All Result Source: https://dailyhodl.com/2026/07/11/cftc-chairman-urges-immediate-senate-passage-of-clarity-act-for-crypto-certainty/
The Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael Selig, is calling on the Senate to pass the Clarity Act without delay. In a new interview on Fox Business, Selig emphasizes the need for a federal framework and statutory guardrails while noting the bill remains within reach despite disputes. “We have to get this […]
The post CFTC Chairman Urges Immediate Senate Passage of Clarity Act for Crypto Certainty appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
The post Polymarket odds: Switzerland leads US-Iran talks venue at 28.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang
Jul 11, 2026 06:03
Iranian state media reported strikes hitting military headquarters in Bushehr and the port city of Konarak, while the US told Al Jazeera it did not carry them out, on the day of Ali Khamenei’s
Polymarket odds: Switzerland leads US-Iran talks venue at 28.5% Polymarket Reprices US–Iran Talks Venue After Strike Reports and a US Denial—Switzerland Leads at 28.5% On Polymarket, traders currently price Switzerland as the most likely venue for the next next round of US–Iran peace talks at 28.5% (up 1.0 pp) on $2.63M matched volume. The move follows fresh reports of strikes in southern Iran and a US denial, with the market still spreading probability across several potential hosts and a “No Meeting” outcome. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading outcome is Switzerland at 28.5% implied odds (Pakistan 16.05%, Qatar 15.5%, “No Meeting by Sep
The post CFTC Chair Mike Selig Says CLARITY Act Is a ‘Must-Pass’ Crypto Bill appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
CFTC Chair Mike Selig backs the CLARITY Act as French Hill pushes for July Senate action on crypto market rules. U.S. crypto policy returned to focus as officials renewed calls for the CLARITY Act. CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the bill is needed for clear digital asset rules. Selig said innovators and market participants need certainty about crypto’s future in America. He described the bill as must-pass legislation for the country’s crypto sector. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill also urged Congress to move past current ethics disputes. He said those disputes should not delay wider crypto market rules. Lawmakers are expected to visit New York next week for a crypto market structure hearing. The trip comes as pressure builds for Senate action in July. CLARITY Act Gains Support From CFTC Chair Selig said the CLARITY Act would provide clearer rules for dig
CFTC Chair Mike Selig backs the CLARITY Act as French Hill pushes for July Senate action on crypto market rules. U.S. crypto policy returned to focus as officials renewed calls for the CLARITY Act. CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the bill is needed for clear digital asset rules. Selig said innovators and market participants need […]
The post CFTC Chair Mike Selig Says CLARITY Act Is a ‘Must-Pass’ Crypto Bill appeared first on Live Bitcoin News.
The post Polymarket pegs BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder pivots near $64K appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang
Jul 11, 2026 04:08
Bitcoin rebounded about 3.5% to nearly $64,000 after dipping near $61,850, a report says, driven by liquidations and a weaker dollar.
Polymarket pegs BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder pivots near $64K Polymarket Reprices the July 12 BTC Strike Ladder After Bitcoin’s Rebound Toward $64,000 Polymarket traders are pricing the July 12 Bitcoin level as heavily skewed toward “above” at lower strikes, with $404,393 in matched volume on the ladder. The setup follows a report that bitcoin rebounded toward $64,000, and the ladder shows where the market draws the line between “likely” and “long shot” by strike. Key Takeaways Top line on Polymarket: “Bitcoin above $52,000 on July 12?” is priced at 99.95% Yes. Trigger and reaction: after bitcoin was reported near $64,000, the ladder centers risk around the $64,000–$66,0
