#ali khamenei

The post Polymarket odds: Switzerland leads US-Iran talks venue at 28.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 11, 2026 06:03 Iranian state media reported strikes hitting military headquarters in Bushehr and the port city of Konarak, while the US told Al Jazeera it did not carry them out, on the day of Ali Khamenei’s Polymarket odds: Switzerland leads US-Iran talks venue at 28.5% Polymarket Reprices US–Iran Talks Venue After Strike Reports and a US Denial—Switzerland Leads at 28.5% On Polymarket, traders currently price Switzerland as the most likely venue for the next next round of US–Iran peace talks at 28.5% (up 1.0 pp) on $2.63M matched volume. The move follows fresh reports of strikes in southern Iran and a US denial, with the market still spreading probability across several potential hosts and a “No Meeting” outcome. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading outcome is Switzerland at 28.5% implied odds (Pakistan 16.05%, Qatar 15.5%, “No Meeting by Sep

The post Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 09, 2026 10:03 At a NATO summit in Turkiye, a report says President Trump called the US–Iran ceasefire MOU “over,” after US strikes followed a promised pause tied to Ali Khamenei’s funeral. Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares Polymarket Holds “No” Near 98% After US–Iran Ceasefire MoU Headlines Polymarket traders are pricing a very low chance that Iran’s regime falls by Sept. 30, with “No” leading at 97.55% on about $278,895 in volume. The latest catalyst in headlines is a new flare-up in US–Iran ceasefire messaging, and the market reaction is best read through the contract’s binary settlement and the still-flat short-term odds. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies “No” at 97.55% (Yes 2.45%) on whether the Iranian regime falls by Sept. 30. After the ceasefire MoU headline, pricing still reflects stron

The post US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 09, 2026 02:03 On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% U.S. Strikes Iran During Khamenei Funeral: Polymarket Odds Drop on Hormuz Traffic Normalization The U.S. launched new strikes on Iran despite President Donald Trump saying attacks would pause during the seven-day funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing responses to attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” was last priced at 58.5% for Yes, down from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dece