The post Prediction Markets Price Platner’s Maine Senate Exit as All but Certain by Late July appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Key Takeaways Kalshi contracts on Platner exiting before July 14 hit an all-time high of 82%, rising to 97% by late July. The Maine Senate winner market swung on the news, with Democrats holding a 59% edge over Republicans at 41%. A new Polymarket contract already prices Troy Jackson as the likeliest Democratic replacement nominee. How the markets repriced the Maine Senate race Traders on Kalshi drove the odds of Platner dropping out before July 14 to an all-time high of 82% on Monday, up from single digits earlier in the day, according to the platform’s own data desk. Contracts covering a later horizon price his exit even higher – around 97% by July 17 and July 31 – reflecting near-certainty that his candidacy does not survive the month, even as the immediate deadline outcome remains less than certain. Under Maine law, July 13 is the deadline for Platner t
The post US moves to reimpose Iran sanctions as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr at 49% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Ted Hisokawa
Jul 08, 2026 00:17
On Tuesday, a report said the United States is moving to reimpose sanctions in response to strikes involving Iran.
US moves to reimpose Iran sanctions as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr at 49% U.S. Reimposes Iran Sanctions: Polymarket GOP 2028 Nominee Odds Hold Steady With RFK Jr. at 49% U.S. moves to reimpose sanctions after Iran strikes put foreign policy back into the headlines as traders priced longer-dated political scenarios. On Polymarket, odds in the Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market were flat, with the leader holding steady at 49%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the leading 2028 Republican nominee at 49% (No 51%). A report on the U.S. moving to reimpose sanctions after Iran strikes coincided with unchanged pricing in the GOP 2028 nominee market. The contract resolves on 2028-11-07, and
The post Middle East tensions lift oil as Polymarket sees 82.5% odds Fed holds in July appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Joerg Hiller
Jul 07, 2026 22:34
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday evening the U.S. launched powerful strikes on Iran after attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, helping lift WTI crude more than 2% above $72.
Middle East tensions lift oil as Polymarket sees 82.5% odds Fed holds in July July 2026 Fed Rate Decision: Polymarket “No Change” Jumps to 82.5% as Oil Rallies and FOMC Minutes Loom U.S. stock-index futures were near flat as investors weighed rising Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and the upcoming release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes. On Polymarket, traders pushed up the leading outcome in the “Fed Decision in July?” ladder, pricing “No change” at 82.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices “No change” after the July 2026 Fed meeting at 82.5% (Yes) versus 17.5% (No). The repricing followed a session marked by h
The post Meta debuts Instagram Muse Image as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 84.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang
Jul 07, 2026 22:28
On Tuesday, Meta rolled out Muse Image inside Instagram, letting prompts remix photos and even public-profile likenesses without notifications, with opt-outs only via privacy or new settings.
Meta debuts Instagram Muse Image as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 84.5% Meta’s Instagram Muse Image Launch Fuels Model-Ranking Race as Polymarket Keeps Anthropic Favored at 84.5% Meta’s rollout of a new Instagram-integrated AI image model has sharpened focus on which labs are leading in generative AI, as platforms race to ship consumer-facing features. On Polymarket’s “Which company has best AI model end of July?” contract, traders still heavily favor Anthropic, with the lead outcome ticking higher to 84.5%. Key Takeaways Anthropic is the leading pick at 84.5% to have the best AI model at the end of July 2026. Traders kept Anthropi
The post Fed minutes loom as Polymarket lifts ETH $1,700 touch odds to 44.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Fed Minutes Loom: Polymarket Ethereum July 6–12 Contract Shifts as “↓ 1,700” Becomes the Top Outcome The market is bracing for the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 meeting minutes due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, a release that traders see as pivotal for risk-asset direction after a jobs-driven crypto rebound. On Polymarket, that macro backdrop has coincided with higher odds on the Ethereum ladder contract “What price will Ethereum hit July 6-12?”, with the leading outcome “↓ 1,700” priced at 44.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the leading outcome “↓ 1,700” at 44.5% (Yes 44.5% / No 55.5%) for Ethereum during July 6-12. Crypto traders are focused on whether the Fed minutes validate a softer labor-market narrative that has underpinned the latest rebound in major tokens. The contract is set to resolve on 2026-07-13 04:00:00+00:00, and the leading-outcome odds are up 6.0 percentage p
The post U.S. hits Iran after ship attacks, Polymarket sees 61.5% Hormuz normalcy appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Alvin Lang
Jul 07, 2026 22:17
Early Wednesday, the U.S. military struck Iran hours after three merchant ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating a fragile ceasefire and complicating talks to reopen the waterway.
U.S. hits Iran after ship attacks, Polymarket sees 61.5% Hormuz normalcy Strait of Hormuz Escalation: Polymarket Odds Slide After U.S. Strikes on Iran and Merchant Ship Attacks The Strait of Hormuz saw renewed military escalation after three merchant ships were hit and the U.S. carried out new strikes on Iran, raising fresh questions about how quickly shipping can stabilize. On Polymarket, odds for the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” fell to 61.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 61.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, 2026 (Yes 61.5%, No 38.5%). Odds dropped as
The situation underscores the Democratic Party's urgent need to address candidate controversies swiftly to safeguard electoral prospects.
The post Sanders urges Maine Senate nominee Platner to withdraw after assault allegation appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post Ronaldo says World Cup goodbye as Polymarket Golden Ball odds sit at 50% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 07, 2026 18:03
After Portugal’s 1-0 last-16 loss to Spain in Dallas, Cristiano Ronaldo said he has played his final World Cup match and will reflect on his international future.
Ronaldo says World Cup goodbye as Polymarket Golden Ball odds sit at 50% Ronaldo Says His World Cup Career Is Over After Portugal’s 1-0 Loss to Spain as Polymarket Golden Ball Odds Stay Flat Cristiano Ronaldo said he has played his last World Cup match after Portugal’s 1-0 last-16 loss to Spain, but he will not make a quick decision on whether he has played his final game for Portugal. The comments landed as Polymarket’s “World Cup: Golden Ball Winner” market held steady with Player A the top-priced outcome at 50%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Player A as the leading Golden Ball outcome at 50% implied odds. Ronaldo said his World Cup career is over after
The post Smotrich touts new West Bank settlements as Polymarket favors Eizenkot at 39% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Jessie A Ellis
Jul 07, 2026 16:13
After Israel’s cabinet approved 13 new settlements in the central occupied West Bank, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called it a “revolution” in settlement expansion, widening concerns over a
Smotrich touts new West Bank settlements as Polymarket favors Eizenkot at 39% Smotrich Calls Settlement Expansion a “Revolution” as Polymarket Odds Tick Up for Israel’s Next Prime Minister Israel Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the government has launched a “revolution” in settlement expansion after the cabinet approved 13 new settlements in the central occupied West Bank. The comments coincided with a small uptick in Polymarket pricing for the “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” contract, where Gadi Eizenkot remains the top-priced outcome. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Gadi E
