South Korean Won: Rally versus sustained USD strength – TD Securities

The post Mexican Peso gains as risk appetite improves, weighs on USD appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Mexican Peso (MXN) registers solid gains of over 0.22% against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as risk appetite improves after two days of hostilities between the US and Iran ended, despite US President Donald Trump’s warning that the deal might be “over.” The USD/MXN pair trades at 17.54 after reaching a daily high of 17.57. USD/MXN slips due to US Dollar weakness The emerging market currency is underpinned by broad US Dollar weakness. Data in Mexico showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June fell to its lowest level since December 2020, tumbling for the third straight month, down from 3.94% to 3.37% YoY, below estimates of 3.52%. Core inflation on an annual basis has risen to 4.03% YoY, slightly above Banxico’s 3% plus or minus 1% goal. The data eases pressure on the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which last month decided to hold rates unchanged at 6.50%, while signaling t

The post Taiwan Dollar: Policy-driven flows temper losses against US Dollar – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports that recent Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness is moderating, partly due to Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) guidance that banks execute large USD sell orders immediately, bringing forward natural supply. However, foreign equity selling and dividend-related USD demand still restrain recovery, with USD/TWD two-way moves likely. Upside momentum pauses as USD supply emerges “Recent weakness in TWD shows tentative signs of moderation. Part of the moderation may reflect the earlier CBC guidance for banks to execute large USD sell orders on the day received, rather than delaying or staggering them.” “This could have helped bring forward natural USD supply and temper the pace of TWD weakness.” “Still, the broader flow backdrop has not turned decisively positive, with foreign equity selling (week-to-date USD4.3bn) and dividend/remittance-r

The post South Korean Won: Asia outperformer on flows and BoK – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale strategists note the Korean Won (KRW) has become Asia’s best performer in early H2, rallying nearly 2.8% as USD/KRW drops from around 1,550 to near 1,500. They link gains to FX conversion flows tied to SK Hynix ADRs and expectations of a 25 bp Bank of Korea (BoK) hike to 2.75%, following a weak first half for KRW. Won rally driven by flows and policy “Elsewhere in EM, the KRW has emerged as Asia’s best performer in early 2H, with a gain of nearly 2.8% (spot). The sharp drop from around 1,550 in early July to near 1,500 coincided with profit taking in the KOSPI.” “We recently highlighted the shift in the FX regime from one driven primarily by trade balances to one increasingly influenced by portfolio flows, resulting in a more pronounced inverse correlation between the KRW and KOSPI amid concerns of frothy semiconductor valuations incl Samsung and SK Hyn

The post Euro: Support from ECB repricing and yields – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret notes the Euro (EUR) is slightly higher versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by a repricing of the European Central Bank (ECB) outlook toward renewed hawkishness and recovering yield spreads. They highlight markets now price about 35 bps of tightening by December, lifting fair value estimates for EUR/USD toward the mid to upper 1.14s despite only modest recent gains. Euro aided by hawkish ECB repricing “The EUR is entering Thursday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain vs. the USD as it performs in line with most of the G10 currencies in quiet overall trade.” “The outlook for relative central bank policy is offering the EUR support as market participants reprice the ECB outlook in light of renewed hawkishness and a resurgence in geopolitically-driven oil price gains.” “Markets are currently pricing in about 35bpts of tightening

The post South Korean Won: Oil-linked range view into BoK meeting – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay argues that elevated South Korean inflation strengthens the case for a 25bp Bank of Korea (BoK) hike to 2.75% on 16 July. USD/KRW has fallen from 1560 to 1506 on earlier Oil weakness, but the bank now expects the pair to trade in a 1500–1520 range, with Oil prices and global risk sentiment remaining key drivers. Won pressured by inflation and Oil “South Korea’s inflation remained elevated in June, reinforcing the view that the Bank of Korea (BoK) is on course to hike rates next week. Headline CPI inflation was slightly higher at 3.2% yoy from 3.1% in May, marking the highest reading since December 2023. It remained well above BoK’s 2% target.” “Other factors expected to keep inflationary pressures firm include the weak won and robust wage growth linked to the AI-driven semiconductor boom.” “The latest inflation report strengthens the case for Bo

The post US Dollar: Tariff passthrough keeps inflation pressure alive – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that the New York Fed’s latest Liberty Street Economics analysis warns many United States (US) firms still plan tariff-related price increases, implying persistent inflation pressures that matter for the US Dollar (USD) and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Nearly half of tariff-paying companies expect further hikes, with gradual pricing and fixed contracts extending adjustment and complicating disinflation. Tariffs extend U.S. inflation timeline “The New York Fed said in its July 8 Liberty Street Economics post that more tariff passthrough still lies ahead for many U.S. firms. Drawing on regional business surveys, the institution reported that nearly half of firms that pay tariffs directly are still planning further price increases, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more from now.” “It said roughly 47% of service firms and 44% of manufactu

The post Singapore Dollar: Upside risks building as USD stays firm – DBS appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow warns that shorter-term Singapore Dollar (SGD) rates may face upside pressure despite recent flush liquidity. He notes SGD rates have decoupled from USD rates, with spreads stretched, while Fed hike expectations remain sticky and the USD strong. Leow highlights USD/SGD near 1.30 and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) policy decisions as key factors for SGD rate repricing. Shorter-term SGD rates face upside risks “We continue to be wary about upside to shorter term SGD rates. Over the course of the past six quarters, market participants have gotten used to very flush SGD liquidity and persistent belief in USD weakness keeping frontend SGD rates low.” “In some ways, SGD rates appear decoupled from USD rates and the spread between the two has become even more stretched. There are some hints that risks to SGD rates may be biased to the up

The post South Korean Won: Gains hinge on supportive flows against US Dollar – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Christopher Wong notes that Korean Won strength remains largely flow-driven, with USD/KRW dropping below 1,500 on offshore fund repatriation and official vigilance. While bearish momentum persists, Wong expects the pullback to moderate and sees a sustained break below 1,500 as requiring a benign backdrop for the Dollar, Oil and equities. Flow-driven strength faces key levels “KRW continued to outperform, with USD/KRW falling from almost 1,560 at the start of the month to sub-1500 briefly yesterday before rebounding. The move looks flow-driven rather than risk or macro-driven.” “KRW strengthened despite a less friendly macro backdrop, including the oil spike, renewed geopolitical concerns and KOSPI underperformance. USD/KRW appears to have been weighed by inflows and repatriation of funds raised offshore, while official vigilance has also stayed high as Korea shifts i