US Dollar: Reserve role questioned

The post US Dollar: Fed pricing questioned as disinflation looms – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that June FOMC minutes may already be stale as weaker labour data and lower energy prices challenge the Fed’s hawkish dot plot. He sees OIS pricing as too aggressive, with rate hikes over-priced and a rate cut by March 2027 more likely than another hike. Dollar strength, he says, has been driven by rate spreads and leveraged long positioning, but this may reverse if disinflation resumes. Fed expectations and Dollar positioning “The FX market is increasingly being driven once again by rates spreads with our rolling correlations indicating that and the Fed rate hike pricing has been the key driver of renewed US dollar buying. A lot of this pricing appears driven by the perception that Fed Chair Warsh has been hawkish. But apart from reaffirming the pursuit of achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation goal there is limited evidence to point to of Warsh being par

The post Why Australian Dollar turns upside down in European session on Wednesday? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives back its early gains and turns lower to near 0.6915 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which aimed for a ceasefire between them, seems over, have prompted demand for safe-haven assets. “I think MoU with Iran is over,” US President Trump said. “I don’t want to deal with Iran. They are sick people,” he added. S&P 500 futures tumble over 0.7% to near 7,445, reflecting a weak risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, turns almost flat around 101.15 after recovering early losses. Earlier in the day, the Australian Dollar outperformed as RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter

The post Australian Dollar: Pullback within broader upside risk against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes AUD/USD has retreated from recent highs after failing to clear resistance near 0.6980. Intraday downside is seen as limited within 0.6900–0.6950, while the 1–3 week outlook still flags tentative upside momentum and rising odds of a break above 0.6980, even as the 1–3 month view remains structurally negative below 0.6835. Short-term range versus medium-term downside “24-HOUR VIEW: AUD rose to a high of 0.6955 on Monday. Yesterday, we stated that “the rapidly increasing upward momentum suggests upside risks, even though the major resistance at 0.6980 could be just out of reach.” We noted that “there is another resistance at 0.6970.” We were incorrect, as AUD retreated sharply to a low of 0.6921. While AUD could retreat further, given the lacklustre downward momentum, any decline is likely to be contained within a 0.

The post Japanese Yen: Weak tone within defined trading band against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that USD/JPY is trading firmly after a sharp rise, with intraday bias tilted higher toward 162.70 while major resistance at 163.00 is expected to hold. On a 1–3 week horizon, the bank sees a mixed outlook with the pair likely confined between 160.60 and 163.00, though the medium-term trend can extend if above 161.00. USD/JPY upside bias capped below 163.00 “24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, USD soared to a high of 162.42. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: “The rapid rise appears excessive, and the pullback from overbought conditions suggests limited further upside for USD. Today, USD could trade in a range between 161.50 and 162.45.” USD then traded within a narrower range than expected (161.66/162.18) before closing marginally higher by 0.01% at 162.09. USD traded on a firm note in the early Asian trade today,

The post US attacks on Iran: Why did the US Dollar fail to rally this time? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulls back to levels a few pips shy of 101.00 during Wednesday’s European session, after being rejected at the 101.20 area earlier in the day, and has turned negative on daily charts. The Index rose amid the fresh hostilities in Iran but has remained within previous ranges as investors remain hopeful that the peace process will survive. The US military announced earlier on Wednesday the completion of the latest round of attacks on Iran, hitting more than 80 targets, in retaliation for alleged attacks by Iranian forces on commercial vessels crossing the Strairtt of Hormuz earlier this week. The US has also rescinded the authorization to export Iranian Oil. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that they targeted 85 US military targets in Kuwait and Bahrain. The Bahrainian Interior Ministry confirmed sirens sounding in the country,

The post US Dollar: Exposure stays elevated – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that cross-border investors’ Dollar holdings remain close to multi-year highs, driven by strong United States (US) asset exposure with fewer FX hedges. Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and the Dollar’s yield advantage underpin this stance, while limited tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and policy easing in China reduce alternatives. Yu warns that unhedged flows still pose currency risk if US assets underperform. Cross-border holdings and Fed expectations “Fed expectations have not moved materially over the past week, but cross-border investors’ aggregate dollar holdings remain at their highest level since April 2025. That comparison needs caveating: the April episode was distorted by the extreme moves around the Liberation Day tariffs. Today’s dollar exposure is different.” “By late Q2, however, Fed expectations had become the dominant driver, with the dollar’s yie

The post USD/CAD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.4200 as Oil gains, but technicals still favor upside appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The USD/CAD pair loses traction to near 1.4175 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Renewed US military strikes against Iran have boosted crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD). Reuters reported on Wednesday that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said they attacked US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait after the US launched a wave of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie. “For now, the market is keeping to the playbook that Tehran and Washington are still in a high-stakes game to gain leverage during the temporary truce, and that Tuesday’s incident would n

The post British Pound: Momentum fades against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports that GBP/USD failed to sustain its recent strong run, pulling back after testing resistance near 1.3410. Short-term price action now points to an extended correction with focus on 1.3330–1.3315 supports, while on a 1–3 week view a break below 1.3315 would signal that the Pound’s latest advance has ended. Correction eyes 1.3315 strong support “24-HOUR VIEW: After GBP rose more than we expected on Monday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Strong momentum suggests further GBP strength toward 1.3410. A break above this major resistance is not ruled out, but based on the prevailing momentum, the next resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3350, with minor support at 1.3370.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. GBP eked out a fresh high of 1.3401 before pulling