US equities: Inflation tilt persists – BNY

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The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hikes but warns of more – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50% to steer inflation back to 2%. The committee still sees further removal of stimulus as likely, though data will guide decisions. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased Oil-related inflation pressures, but the earlier shock hurt New Zealand’s Q2 growth, with recovery expected in Q3 as confidence improves. Policy tightening keeps inflation in focus “The RBNZ has hiked its OCR by 25bp to 2.50%, seeking to return inflation to the 2% target.” “The committee continues to expect that further removal of monetary stimulus may be required, although future policy decisions will be guided by incoming data, inflation dynamics and economic activity.” “It said the recent partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had lowered global oil and petrochemical prices, easing

The post Oil: Conflict-driven volatility and positioning – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights growing fragility in global markets as President Trump declares the Iran ceasefire over and U.S. strikes in the Strait of Hormuz reignite Oil volatility. Brent, WTI and Middle Eastern benchmarks have jumped around 5%, yet inflation expectations remain intact and positioning data show core energy and inflation hedges in place, limiting broader disruption for now. Ceasefire doubts lift crude benchmarks “Markets are starting to look fragile. President Trump is now openly questioning the durability of the ceasefire, while exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying. For markets and the global economy, the prospect of a swift return to pre-conflict energy and goods flows through the waterway is fading.” “The immediate oil reaction has been significant, roughly 5%, depending on the benchmark, but not yet large enough to derail the improvement in inflati

The post BTC inflation quagmire gets sticker as renewed Iran conflict sends oil price soaring: Crypto Daily appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Will the Fed focus on the breakevens, which are already at or below 2% at the short end, or on rising consumer concerns? The Fed itself tends to trust breakevens because they reflect institutional capital allocation, while consumer surveys frequently lag behind and can be heavily influenced by volatile everyday costs like energy and food. Hence, the argument that falling breakevens are bullish for bitcoin still holds. But the central bank may not entirely ignore Main Street sentiment, which can become self-reinforcing, especially if catalysts like energy prices remain volatile. And guess what? The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. The two sides exchanged airstrikes early today, triggering a roughly 5% jump in oil benchmarks. Bitcoin has fallen back to $62,000 and may drop further if the panic spreads to Wall Street later today. Analysts are a

The post US Dollar: Exposure stays elevated – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that cross-border investors’ Dollar holdings remain close to multi-year highs, driven by strong United States (US) asset exposure with fewer FX hedges. Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and the Dollar’s yield advantage underpin this stance, while limited tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and policy easing in China reduce alternatives. Yu warns that unhedged flows still pose currency risk if US assets underperform. Cross-border holdings and Fed expectations “Fed expectations have not moved materially over the past week, but cross-border investors’ aggregate dollar holdings remain at their highest level since April 2025. That comparison needs caveating: the April episode was distorted by the extreme moves around the Liberation Day tariffs. Today’s dollar exposure is different.” “By late Q2, however, Fed expectations had become the dominant driver, with the dollar’s yie

The post South Korea: Tech-led strain and shifting flows – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that institutional investors are exiting South Korean equities, contributing to the KOSPI’s brief bear-market move, while retail buyers still support the market. He notes concerns over AI and semiconductor concentration, questions the sustainability of retail support, and contrasts South Korea with more measured liquidation in Taiwan and ongoing interest in Chinese equities. Institutional selling pressures KOSPI “iFlow data suggest institutional investors are continuing to exit South Korean equities en masse, likely contributing to the KOSPI’s brief move into bear market territory overnight. Retail investors remain on the other side of the trade, but the market is increasingly questioning how sustainable that support is. Taiwanese equities have also benefited from the AI and semiconductor narrative, though liquidation there has been more measured in scale and pa

The post Euro: ECB cautious as euro area outlook stays fragile – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu cites European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta, who describes a fragile Euro area outlook with upside inflation risks and downside growth risks. Panetta stresses that policy should not follow a preset path, frames the latest rate hike as recalibration after oil-driven inflation, and says recurring supply shocks may force further adaptation to meet the 2% target. Panetta flags balanced risks for Euro “ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said in Rome that the euro area faces a fragile outlook, with upside risks to inflation still coexisting with downside risks to growth.” “He argued that recent peace talks between the U.S. and Iran could eventually ease energy prices but warned that monetary policy should not follow a preset path.” “Panetta said policymakers must keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, energy markets, supply ch

The post Japanese Yen: Japan denies rate-pressure claims as data mixed – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Geoff Yu notes Japan’s Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi rejected reports that the government is trying to push interest rates lower or pressure the Bank of Japan (BoJ). He emphasizes continued coordination with the BoJ, while recent data show firm nominal wage gains but weaker real earnings, soft household spending, and improving coincident indicators, with the Japanese Yen briefly firmer versus the Dollar. Policy stance steady, data send mixed signals “Japan’s Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi has rejected media reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government is trying to push interest rates lower, saying there is “absolutely no truth” to claims that fiscal expansion is aimed at pressuring the BoJ.He said the omission of “fiscal consolidation” from the draft basic policy guidelines was not intended to weaken fiscal discipline, but to present fiscal susta