Euro: ECB support limited by spreads – NBC
The post Euro: ECB support limited by spreads – NBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. National Bank of Canada ’s (NBC) Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms note the Euro (EUR) fell toward 1.13 in June despite a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB), underscoring that EUR/USD remains driven by relative rates. Widening 2-year Bund–Treasury spreads weigh on the pair, while speculative positioning is now more balanced. They target EUR/USD at 1.18 by year-end, assuming broad Dollar moderation as Fed repricing matures. Euro needs Dollar relief “The euro has weakened despite a more hawkish ECB, reinforcing that EUR/USD remains mostly a relative-rates story. Short-term spreads have moved against the common currency, while softer inflation reduces the need for a more aggressive ECB response. Still, positioning is now less stretched than a quarter ago.” “In the near term, the euro still needs dollar relief to reach our year-end target.” “Short-term yield spreads remain the clearest headwind. The