#kyle dahms

The post Japanese Yen: Weak against US Dollar with limited upside – NBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. National Bank of Canada ’s (NBC) Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms highlight the Japanese Yen (JPY) trading near multi-decade lows around 161 per USD, even as long-end yield differentials move in Japan’s favour. They see stretched short yen positioning, rising intervention risk near 162–163, and gradual BoJ normalization limiting further weakness. Their forecast has USD/JPY easing to 158 by year-end and toward 155 by mid-2027. Intervention risk caps yen losses “The yen remains near multi-decade lows despite some improvement in long-end yield spreads. Cautious BoJ normalization and fiscal concerns continue to limit support, while intervention risk around the 162–163 area and crowded yen shorts make further yen weakness look less likely. A sustained yen recovery likely requires lower U.S. yields or a more forceful BoJ.” “Positioning makes the setup more asymmetric. Non-commercial spec

The post Euro: ECB support limited by spreads – NBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. National Bank of Canada ’s (NBC) Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms note the Euro (EUR) fell toward 1.13 in June despite a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB), underscoring that EUR/USD remains driven by relative rates. Widening 2-year Bund–Treasury spreads weigh on the pair, while speculative positioning is now more balanced. They target EUR/USD at 1.18 by year-end, assuming broad Dollar moderation as Fed repricing matures. Euro needs Dollar relief “The euro has weakened despite a more hawkish ECB, reinforcing that EUR/USD remains mostly a relative-rates story. Short-term spreads have moved against the common currency, while softer inflation reduces the need for a more aggressive ECB response. Still, positioning is now less stretched than a quarter ago.” “In the near term, the euro still needs dollar relief to reach our year-end target.” “Short-term yield spreads remain the clearest headwind. The