Euro: Support zone key for next leg against US Dollar – UOB

The post What is keeping the Japanese Yen close to 40-year lows as extreme positioning meets intervention threats? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains locked in a high-stakes standoff against the US Dollar, testing the ultimate limits of Tokyo’s tolerance for its local currency to depreciate. While a combination of a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ), loose domestic fiscal policy, and structural vulnerabilities as a net energy importer continue to weigh down the asset, speculative short positioning has reached heavily stretched extremes.  Market observers warn that while the immediate technical path points to further gradual upside for the USD/JPY pair, the threat of unannounced government intervention looms large, setting the stage for a potentially violent and sudden trend reversal. USD/JPY daily chart. Source: FXStreet. Structural pressures and extreme positioning heighten intervention threats FX strategists at ABN AMRO note the market is aggressively probin

The post Japanese Yen gains against US Dollar despite renewed geopolitical risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) despite renewed geopolitical risks. The USD/JPY pair is down 0.17% to near 162.35 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure even as the exchange of attacks between the United States (US) and Iran has de-anchored United States (US) inflation expectations again. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.15% -0.23% -0.16% 0.07% -0.15% -0.69% -0.29% EUR 0.15% -0.07% -0.04% 0.22% 0.03% -0.51% -0.13% GBP 0.23% 0.07% 0.04% 0.29% 0.10% -0.43% -0.05% JPY 0.16% 0.04% -0.04% 0.22% 0.05% -0.52% -0.12% CAD -0.07% -0.22% -0.29% -0.22% -0.19% -0.73% -0.34% AUD 0.15% -0.03% -0.10% -0.05% 0.19% -0.54% -0.15% NZD 0.69% 0.51% 0.43% 0.52% 0.73% 0.54% 0

The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the

The post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro wavers around 1.1430 with the bearish trend intact appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency. Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing

The post Australian Dollar: Tentative upside risk above 0.6980 against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees AUD/USD confined to a 0.6915–0.6950 intraday range as momentum remains lacklustre. For 1–3 weeks, upward momentum is tentatively building, with rising risk of a break above 0.6980 while 0.6900 acts as strong support. Over 1–3 months, however, the broader trend remains negative, with focus on 0.6707 below 0.6835. Australian Dollar holds in tight band “24-HOUR VIEW: AUD fell to a low of 0.6921 two days ago. When it was at 0.6925 yesterday, we stated that “while AUD could retreat further, given the lacklustre downward momentum, any decline is likely to be contained within a 0.6900/0.6950 range.” AUD subsequently rose to 0.6946, dipped to 0.6907 before recovering to close marginally higher by 0.01% at 0.6929. There has been no clear shift in either downward or upward momentum, and AUD is likely to range-trade today, pro

The post Forex Today: Markets overlook escalating tensions in Middle East appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Thursday despite a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data for June. Investors will also keep a close eye on comments from central bank officials. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.20% -0.15% 0.06% -0.09% -0.54% -0.22% EUR 0.14% -0.06% 0.00% 0.20% 0.08% -0.36% -0.06% GBP 0.20% 0.06% 0.07% 0.26% 0.14% -0.30% 0.00% JPY 0.15% 0.00% -0.07% 0.19% 0.09% -0.38% -0.06% CAD -0.06% -0.20% -0.26% -0.19% -0.12% -0.57% -0.26% AUD 0.09% -0.08% -0.14% -0.09% 0.12% -0.44% -0.12% NZD 0.54% 0.36% 0

The post Euro: Hawkish Fed keeps gains contained against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States. Fed reaction function supports Dollar “EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly.” “In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices.” “The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked

The post US Dollar: Supported by higher yields and FOMC stance – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Lloyd Chan reports that June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes show policymakers increasingly concerned that US inflation could stay elevated, with some seeing a case for a rate hike. Most participants indicated a restrictive stance may need to be maintained if inflation proves persistent. FOMC minutes and yield rebound “The minutes from the June FOMC meeting highlighted growing concern among policymakers that inflation could remain elevated, even as downside risks to the labour market have moderated somewhat.” “While members ultimately supported leaving rates unchanged, a few participants noted that there was a case for a rate hike at the June meeting.” “Policymakers also discussed a range of economic scenarios for the months ahead.” “In the scenario where inflation remains persistent, most participants indicated that a restrictive policy stance would likely nee