Euro holds modest gains above 1.1400 vs USD as Mideast tensions cap

The post United States Dollar Index Forecast: Tests 23.6% Fibo. below 101.00 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, extends the previous day’s pullback from the 101.25-101.30 region and attracts some follow-through sellers on Thursday. The index touches a fresh weekly low during the first half of the European session and currently trades around the 100.90 area, down over 0.15% for the day. From a technical perspective, the DXY is supported by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June upswing and holds a constructive near-term bias above the 100.50 horizontal resistance breakpoint, which should act as a pivotal point. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below zero with a negative reading at -0.09, hinting that bullish momentum is still tentative despite the supportive structure. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.09 sits in neutral ter

The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the

The post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro wavers around 1.1430 with the bearish trend intact appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency. Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing

The post Euro: Hawkish Fed keeps gains contained against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States. Fed reaction function supports Dollar “EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly.” “In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices.” “The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked

The post Euro holds gains against Japanese Yen as Germany’s Trade Surplus widens in May appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 185.70 during the early European hours on Thursday. The currency cross maintains its upward momentum following stronger-than-expected seasonally-adjusted Trade Balance data from Germany. Germany’s Trade Surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, marking the largest surplus since February. This comfortably beat market forecasts of €14.8 billion and followed an upwardly revised €14.7 billion surplus in April. This expansion was driven by an unexpected 0.9% month-on-month surge in German exports, which hit a three-and-a-half-year high and defied expectations of a 0.3% decline. Conversely, imports dropped by 2.5% to a three-month low, missing the estimate for a 0.1% growth and reversing the previous month’s 1.1% gain. However, the upside of the EUR/JPY cross could be limited as the Japanese Yen (JP

The post EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Languishes below 0.8550 with bullish attempts subdued appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro (EUR) keeps treading water right above one-year lows against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday. The EUR/GBP is trading flat in the area of 0.8530 at the time of writing, weighed by rising tensions between the US and Iran and the rebound in oil prices. In the Eurozone, German Trade Balance data beat expectations with a EUR 19.1 billion surplus in May, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, as exports grew against expectations. The data, however, has failed to provide any significant support to the Euro. Meanwhile, the US has launched a new round of attacks in Iran, which targeted US bases in Gulf countries in retaliation. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire was over, and Crude prices have bounced up nearly10% with Brent Oil hitting the $80 level on Wednesday, after bottoming near $70.00 last week. Technical Analysis: EUR/

The post Euro: Support zone key for next leg against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD momentum has flattened, with the Euro expected to trade between 1.1395 and 1.1440 intraday. Over 1–3 weeks, the pair is seen in a broader 1.1360–1.1450 range-trading phase. On a 1–3 month view, a break of the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone would target 1.1210. Euro-Dollar locked in range phase “24-HOUR VIEW: EUR fell to a low of 1.1407 on Tuesday. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: “Despite the relatively sharp decline, downward momentum has not increased much. However, there is scope for EUR to dip below 1.1390. The major support at 1.1360 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1430 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.” EUR subsequently declined and printed a low of 1.1390 before recovering to close largely unchanged at 1.1414 (+0.03%). Momentum indicators

The post AUD/USD Price Forecast: 0.6860 is key support level amid geopolitical risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.6935 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower despite escalating Middle East risks and hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the June policy meeting. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 100.92. The attacks on Iranian infrastructure by United States (US) military forces signal that the restart of the war would last long, a scenario that might keep oil prices higher and the appeal of safe-haven assets upbeat. According to Axios, the US Air Force bombed two railway bridges in Iran on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the FOMC Minutes showed on Wednesday that policymakers are concerned about upside inflation risks a